Early elections, alliances and candidates
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli once again called for an ‘early election’ and opened a new page in Turkish politics. After Bahceli’s call, the presidential and parliamentary elections were pushed up to June 24. The governing system in Turkey will now change radically on July 8 at the latest, if the presidential vote reaches a run-off stage, replacing the current system with a presidential version. However, it is still unclear how the executive and public institutions will be structured within an as yet unwritten legal framework.
The first phase for approving the early election was completed last week after parliament voted in favor of the proposal. After the publication of the election decision in the Official Gazette, the Supreme Election Board will start the electoral calendar. A road map to determine the harmonization laws affecting the new presidential system will also be determined as soon as possible.
AK Party/MHP all ance has the advantage
The opposition is expected to go into overdrive to determine its presidential candidates and potential alliances. The AK Party and the MHP, which established an alliance and determined their candidate weeks ago, are in a more advantageous position. The MHP leader reaffirmed that their candidate would be Erdogan and felt confident that the current President would secure the 50 percent plus one votes needed for victory in the first round. Opposition parties complained that the early vote unfairly gives the AK Party and MHP a head start in campaigning.
Const tut onal amendments
The goal of the AK Party/MHP alliance is to garner 55-60 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election and secure a strong majority in the parliamentary election. If the MHP achieves its target of 60 members of parliament, the hope is the alliance will surpass the 400-seat minimum needed for amending the constitution unilaterally, without seeking compromise with the opposition.
Oppos t on feel ng squeezed
Opposition parties had been preparing for possible early elections since November but were taken by surprise with the short timeframe of less than two months. The CHP has not yet determined its presidential candidate; it will now have to choose its deputies, prepare an election manifesto and begin campaigning, all within an 8-week period. Most analysts agree that the tight schedule will hurt the opposition, especially the CHP, which will now need to enter into intense negotiations with the GOOD Party and Saadet over the shape of an alliance and whether or not they will put forward a single presidential candidate.