Snap elections neither can boost the economy nor doom it

The June 24 date for snap elections after President Erdogan met MHP Leader Bahçeli was much earlier than expected, so early that even some AK Party deputies were surprised while watching Erdogan make the announcement on television – but of course without any obvious reaction.

Deputies had the chance to enjoy being deputies until November 2019, but now they all fear the risk of losing their positions. Thus, even October-November was better for them. At least they would have a chance to prepare for the elections. Suddenly, they may become “former deputies” in two months’ time.

Why snap elect ons?

Why was a ‘public alliance’ needed to re-schedule the elections for a year and a half earlier? Is there a concrete answer to this question? We can’t know it; we wouldn’t know it even if there was one.

It’s kind of odd that President Erdogan says the Constitutional Amendment is expected but we have not completely passed to a presidential system. Does that suggest Erdogan and the government, or Erdogan and Prime Minister Yildirim have some conflicts from time to time?

There seems to be two major reasons behind the government’s call

for snap elections. The main impetus is the growing economic challenges. We’ve tried to float the economy with extensive incentives and to prevent a low growth rate. The government has succeeded in a narrow sense to some extent. But all these measure will rebound in the form of inflation. And there are some other developments fueling inflation, as we all know. Foreign exchange rate increases will eventually push inflation higher. Is it surprising then that the government thinks: “It is never too late to fix things; better to run in snap elections with as low as possible inflation.”

Would local elect ons have shattered elect on all ances?

If they remain on schedule, local elections will be held in March next year. The Presidential and general elections were set to be held in November next year. The alliance between the AK Party and MHP didn’t cover the local elections period. The atmosphere for them was normal.

But in local elections, alliance parties would be pitted against each other. What would happen in that

case? Would cracks in the alliance form? Would kind and respectful party leaders refrain from criticizing each other? So, what would happen if the election alliance tattered in local elections before November 2019? Thus, it was logical to call for snap elections, pushing the presidential and general elections to as early a date as possible.

Afr n and Apr l 16 sp r t

The AK Party/MHP alliance will benefit from snap elections. The afterglow from Afrin still colors public opinion. Not all military operations are supported by the voter base but this one will no doubt be used in the election campaign.

But there is still a significant “no” block in society. We’ve just passed the one-year anniversary of the April 16 referendum and that no block will wake up now. That may put the alliance at a disadvantage.

Was there uncerta nty?

Some argue that the announcement of an early election date has eliminated uncertainties and should be viewed as a positive development. In that case, we have to ask the question: “What were the uncertainties in holding the elections in November 2019 and are they eliminated with snap elections?”

There is wide consensus that Bahceli’s call for snap elections and the subsequent setting of a date was like letting the genie out of the bottle, and since then there has indeed been uncertainty. But until that announcement, who has said that rescheduling the elections for this year – moreover in June – would be good?

The opposition sometimes mentioned it, but that’s all.

How w ll the economy roar back?

In the economic vein, some say, “The election has been declared. Now the cloud of questions has cleared and the economy should roar back.”

How? What will be done to make the economy roar? There is no clarity. If what’s meant is infusing the economy with more money – and ignoring the possible disastrous outcomes - there may be a temporary revival but certainly no roar. There’s not enough time for that.

What can really be done in two months to spur significant improvement? Moreover, the expectations are that on June 24, the election will run smoothly and result in a clear victory for President Erdogan.

But what if no one can reach the 50 percent plus one vote threshold in the first round? Will the country then fall into chaos and will the economy collapse?

Don’t expect too much to change in terms of the economy because snap elections have been called. Economic conditions were the biggest reason behind the decision but the economy will neither roar with snap elections nor will it worsen.