Will snap elections have an impact on the economy?

Turkey, unfortunately, has been under a cloud of elections of one form or another for at least the last two years. Let me say one thing in advance: I do believe economic talking points will dominate this election, just as in the snap election decision in 2002. There is a clear political motive behind this. But indeed, that doesn’t necessarily mean this decision won’t have an economic effect.

Let’s look at the upside first: Snap elections may produce three positive impacts on the economy. First of all, the 19 months left in the original election schedule would have meant economic decisions based on electoral considerations which would have most probably increased the uncertainties and vulnerabilities of the economy. But for an election to be held just in two months, there is no need to take concrete economic measures for electoral purposes.

Secondly, after the election, a new government will be formed which will probably do its duty for five uninterrupted years. That will allow it to pursue a planned and longterm economic program.

Lastly, bureaucrats – according to talk in Ankara – have been in a kind of election limbo for some time which has disrupted their proper functioning. That will be eliminated with snap elections.

But of course, early elections inevitably produce risks as well. Even though we’ve been governed by a kind of presidential system for the last two years, the official transition will be a first for Turkey. That may bring some problems in terms of how to manage the new system in its early stages.

Also, the rapid pace set in motion by such an early date feels a little like a “raid” election, particularly if you consider the controversial new electoral law and the state of emergency. These may not have a direct impact on the economy, but politically, especially among the opposition and our Western allies, they may produce objections in terms of democracy and legitimacy.

Lastly, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Office (TurkStat) last week, 28.3 percent of the Turkish population consists of children (0-17 years old). Even though there has been a decline in this rate over the years, the percentage is much higher than in advanced countries. The average age of our population is 28 but active politicians seem to be much older than this. Even the fresh faces trying to enter the political arena are over 60. But as we see in Greece, France, Canada, Austria and many other countries with a much higher average age, young politicians are taking leadership roles.

In a digital era, where we talk about industry 4.0, social and economic relations play out in an entirely new environment. But we live in a region where analog-era politicians dominate the political scene. Is it because young people have become cold to politics? Or is it because older generations don’t give them a chance? I don’t know why, but we don’t see young people in politics and it’s difficult to create a new vision and bring a breath of fresh air when old and worn-out politicians are the norm.