Bulgaria likely option for TurkStream 2

Turkey will transform from an end user to an intermediate user with the commissioning of the second line of the TurkStream natural gas project, while eliminating transit risks through Ukraine, Volkan Ozdemir, head of the Ankara-based Institute for Energy Markets and Policies (EPPEN), said in an interview with Anadolu Agency.

Russia will sell gas to Europe via Turkey for the first time, which will lead to the forging of more interdependent relations between Russia and Turkey, Ozdemir added, emphasizing the economic and political returns of the pipeline project.

“This is a very important win for Turkey,” he said. “Turkey, with more than 30 years of natural gas trade with Russia, has not previously experienced such a situation.”

He stressed that Turkey is now in a position through the TurkStream project to eliminate Ukrainian transit risks at a time when tensions between Russia and Ukraine are ongoing.

“Any crisis in Ukraine would have serious repercussions for Turkey. However, because of the TurkStream project, Turkey will be protected,” he asserted.

Russia, meanwhile, continues to evaluate Bulgaria and Greece as potential onward routes into Europe from Turkey for the second line, Ozdemir added, confirming that Bulgaria is, in economic terms, preferred by the Russians. A route from Bulgaria to Serbia, Hungary and Austria is possible providing reverse flows, he contended.

Ozdemir also referred to the political factors at play with the Greek option.

“The U.S., Ukraine and Greece are moving together,” he said, in response to the recent problems between the Fener Greek Orthodox Patriarchate and the Russian Orthodox Church.

The relations between the Orthodox churches have been strained due to the request of Kiev Patriarchate in Ukraine to gain independence from the Russian Orthodox Church. In 2018, the Kiev Patriarchate sent its request for independence to the Fener Greek Patriarchate in Istanbul.

On October 11, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church agreed to become independent of the Russian Orthodox Church during a meeting held at Fener Greek Patriarchate in Istanbul. Later, on October 15, the Russian church cut ties with the Fener Greek Patriarchate, and described the Patriarchate’s decision on Ukrainian autocephaly as ‘dissent’.

“Russians in response to this are focusing on the Bulgarian option, and not on Greece,” Ozdemir said. “Therefore, in this case, I think that a political preference will be made by the Russians.”