China’s moment

If it felt like China may be in trouble last year, with protests in Hong Kong making headway and the trade war with the U.S. doing real damage to the Chinese economy, recent developments have helped the communist regime turn things around. As the world reels from the coronavirus pandemic and the U.S. buckles under the strain of its own socio-economic fault lines, China is demonstrating a renewed sense of confidence. Is China back, and stronger than before?

Adnan R. Khan: Recent moves by the Chinese government in Hong Kong have further deteriorated the island’s relative independence. Can we still talk about Hong Kong independence in any meaningful way at this point?

Ilter Turan: In fact, the use of the word independence is critical here because Hong Kong wasn’t really meant to be independent. Rather, it was promised a number of privileges in the way it would be governed for a period of 50 years, until 2047, after the territory was transferred from the British to the Chinese in 1997. So, if we ask the question what would happen in 2047, we have to acknowledge that Hong Kong would be fully integrated into China.

With the rise of the highly authoritarian ►i Jinping, it seems that the communist government has lost patience. ►i is facing challenges elsewhere in China and he likely does not want Hong Kong to set itself up as an example of resistance to the central government. To place the entire country under an iron fist, the Mr. ►i decided to move more rapidly in integrating Hong Kong fully into the central Chinese orbit.

Adnan R. Khan: How do the most recent moves accomplish that?

Ilter Turan: Much of this has to do with criticizing the regime. The Chinese central government has been trying to silence opposition, much of which is based in Hong

Kong. Proposals of legal changes have come one after the other. These include an extradition proposal that failed, more recently new rules allowing Beijing to draft and enforce national security laws on the island, and now a law making it a criminal offense to insult the Chinese national anthem – all directly impacting the liberties of Hong Kong citizens to criticize the Chinese government.

Adnan R. Khan: Why is the Communist regime so concerned about criticism? Ilter Turan: I think what makes the Chinese government uncomfortable is that Hong Kong represents a viable alternative to what the Communists have created on the mainland. People from mainland China come to Hong Kong and see what life can be like in a more open society; people from Hong Kong go to China representing a different political culture that has the potential to make mainlanders question the system they live under. These two systems are compatible. •ne constitutes a challenge for the other.

Adnan R. Khan: This is often the case in authoritarian regimes, this fear of ideological infection from the outside. Ilter Turan: Indeed, the ruling elite always perceives its own system to be prone to infection from without. While such sensitivity is often exaggerated, authoritarian leaders always feel insecure anyway. Permitting open opposition may only help it spread while opposition often gets its inspiration from other countries. In addition, the need for opposition(s) to act secretly confounds the government’s discomfort.

Adnan R. Khan: Taiwan is another source of insecurity. How will events in Hong Kong be perceived in Taiwan? Ilter Turan: I think there will be a number of effects. First, independence-minded Taiwanese will achieve a solid majority for some time to come. This will lead to Taiwan’s deepening its defense and security arrangements with the U.S. We should remember that recently the U.S. agreed to sell the Taiwanese a number of warplanes to buttress their defense. Second, global economic powers, starting with the U.S., have begun to look for alternative places where they can import the goods that they now get from China. The same holds for investments. Taiwan will constitute an attractive location, although it is economically more developed and its products are somewhat more expensive.

Adnan R. Khan: This idea of economic power and how the world deals with China is critical because of the economic influence China exerts over the rest of the world. How is the rest of the world reacting to this?

Ilter Turan: You can look at it from two perspectives. At this particular time, what is happening in the U.S. is disastrous. America has undermined its own moral position in the world, let alone criticize others. But more broadly, many societies have such beneficial economic relationships with China that they are reluctant to undermine trade by placing greater emphasis on political and moral grounds.

Adnan R. Khan: It does seem like China’s picked the right moment to do this. Was it a conscious decision to move now? Ilter Turan: We can only speculate on that. The direction of change in Chinese actions has certainly been deliberate. But the speed and the timing at which these particular steps are being implemented probably take into consideration the prevailing global conditions. The inept American leadership in tackling the pandemic and the recent developments relating to racially-motivated police violence may have prompted the Chinese to judge that this is a good time to make their moves.