A big step in normalizing regional relations

WE HAVE lived through an unusual flurry of diplomatic activity during the past week. A major international gathering, the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, provided an opportunity for political leaders, diplomats, and other interested parties to discuss global and regional problems at the beachfront resort. Also, the day before the commencement of the meeting, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met there, generating, as events have shown, unfulfilled hopes of a cease-fire in the disastrous conflict. Equally important, however, were the numerous contacts between the Turkish president and other world leaders either personally or through telephone conversations complemented by contacts between foreign policy officials. It appears that these contacts, seemingly directed toward reconstructing Turkey’s declining relationships with the West in recent years, will continue as indicated by the forthcoming visit of the German prime minister to Ankara next week.

A critical visit occurring in the middle of last week was that of Israeli President Itzhak Herzog, who came to Ankara in the first such visit in 14 years. Turkish-Israeli relations had generally been good until a rupture that began taking shape in 2009 with Turkey’s then-Prime Minister Erdogan leaving a panel in Davos, accusing Israel of killing innocent people (meaning Palestinians). The rupture reached a climax when Israeli commandos boarded the civilian ship Mavi Marmara delivering aid to Gaza, killing ten Turkish citizens who offered resistance. In retrospect, the broader framework within which these developments occurred was the shift in Turkish foreign policy toward assuming the leadership of states in the region with mostly Sunni populations in the hopes that they could form an autonomous center of power in global politics. In this context, extending support to Palestinian causes, particularly to Hamas, constituted an exceptionally popular avenue of action in the Arab world.

Turkey’s aspirations failed to materialize. After a brief rise following the Arab Spring, the fortunes of the Muslim Brotherhood, the leading exponent of change, have eclipsed such that it no longer counts as a major political force. Turkey’s relations with regimes that rejected a domestic political role for the Brotherhood deteriorated rapidly for a variety of reasons, leaving Turkey with almost no Arab friends. The end of good relations with Israel, on the other hand, not only led Israel to become party to arrangements in the Eastern Mediterranean that perceived Turkey as a rival and sometimes an adversary but also to more problematical relations with the United States, where pro-Israeli groups exercise considerable importance in foreign policymaking. And to top it all off, with intensive American prodding, many Arab regimes that had made refusing to recognize Israel a fundamental tenet of their foreign policy changed their position, establishing diplomatic relations with it and appearing ready to expand their relations into economics, culture, and even security.

The growing isolation of Turkey in the region, its worsening relations with its allies in part because of its regional policy, its need to expand economic relations with its neighbors as the necessity for expanding exports intensified, its need to diversify its energy sources given its growing dependence on Russia, and other reasons have finally led Turkey to reconsider its regional policy and normalize relations with its neighbors. After a break lasting a decade and a half, reconstituting relations with Israel, particularly taking them to their pre-2009 status, will not be easy.

There has been an erosion of trust among former partners and they have developed new relations that they cannot simply give up because Turkey has changed its mind. Yet, it is important to note that Turkey ’s experiment in regional leadership based on religious affiliation has been abandoned and the country is ready to go back to its traditional regional relations.

The visit of President Herzog marks a critical point in Turkey’s normalization of relations in the region. Previous efforts to repair relations between the two countries, including the efforts of President Obama, who got Israel to agree to offer an apology for the Mavi Marmara incident and pay indemnity to the families of those who lost their lives, did not bring about the expected improvements. This time Turkey and Israel have moved to improve their relations, suggesting that the desire for improvement may be based on firmer ground. The Israeli president took some risks by coming to Turkey since there are some in the Israeli government who feel Turkey under its current leadership cannot be trusted. The Turkish government, to its credit, has accorded him a warm reception. Various avenues for cooperation appear to have been discussed in meetings, including connecting Israeli gas by pipeline to Turkey for both Turkey’s consumption and for export to Europe.

It is too early to tell how Turkish-Israeli relations will develop but we have a welcome beginning and a big step in Turkey’s normalizing its relations with the Middle East.