Let us wait and see

Turkiye has THE EARTHQUAKE suffered constitute grounds for improved relations with neighbors? We asked this question last week but were not able to answer. It is far from certain that we can give a more convincing answer now, but we can examine more closely whether the calamity has created an environment more likely to emphasize cooperation and reduce conflictual behavior between Turkiye and its neighbors. The answer may vary depending on the country, but the immediate effect seems to be the toning down of hostile statements, emphasizing that the parties should talk to each other and making references to historical friendships, never forgotten good deeds, etc.

Israel was one of the first countries to rush to assistance. Its involvement has been substantial and likely to continue. This fits well with recent efforts by both sides to improve their relations. The Israeli support was not couched in political terms, but it will clearly contribute to the improved perception of Israel in Turkish public opinion. Until recently, it had been viewed in negative light. The critical remarks emanating from some nationalist and religiously conservative circles, a few bordering on paranoia, suggest that its assisting Turkiye has allowed Israel to improve its standing in Turkish public opinion. Despite entertaining ambivalence toward its treatment of Palestinians, the Turkish government, in conformity with its efforts to mend fences with Israel, is content to witness the positive change.

More interesting has been the welcoming of support from Armenia with whom the land border is closed. Recently, it was opened to the passing of non-Armenian persons across the border, but during the past week it has been opened to trucks bringing Armenian emergency aid to the earthquake-stricken zone. Soon afterwards, Ararat Mirzoyan, the Foreign Minister of Armenia visited Turkiye. This gesture becomes more meaningful within the context of recent developments. After the Azeris took back territories that were taken from it through war in 1994, Turkiye and Armenia have been communicating quietly to improve their relations. The pace of progress has been slow, depending to a large extent on how Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan have been progressing. That has not changed.

But, with Russia’s attention focused on Ukraine and the decline of its capabilities in actively managing the Azeri-Armenian conflict, there seems to be growing interest on the Armenian side to settle issues with neighbors. Recent news has suggested that Armenia may have become more amenable to opening the Zengezur Corridor that would connect the Azeri enclave of Nakhcevan to Azerbaijan proper. Turkiye hopes that the corridor will provide it with an alternative route to reach Azerbaijan but more importantly, to Central Asia. The visit of the Armenian foreign minister has provided an opportunity to discuss how relations may be further improved and maybe develop a roadmap along which to proceed.

The response of Greece has also been noteworthy. That both the Greek people and the Greek government would rush to the support of Turkey is not surprising. Despite the conflictual approach that often characterizes the nature of their relations, the populations do not look at each other as enemies. On both sides, there are people that have their origins on the other side, every year many tourists from each country visit the other and the Greek islands near the Turkish coast do thriving business with Turkish visitors. Furthermore, over time, there has almost evolved a tradition of rushing to the other’s help when it faces an emergency. What is interesting is the visit of the Greek foreign minister Nikos Dendias, who joined the Turkish foreign minister Cavusoglu in flying over the emergency zone, rendering mutual remarks that there should be a new start to improving the bilateral relationship. Mr. Dendias is generally thought of as a leading proponent of confrontational relations with Turkey, using his stance as a resource in entertaining prime ministerial ambitions. It is not clear whether Mr. Dendias was engaged in a public relations stunt or whether he and his government have come to appreciate that Greece’s and Turkey’s partners want the two countries not to fight but settle their differences by negotiations. Time will tell, but the earthquake has provided the sides with a pretext to move away from a confrontational approach.

The list of countries that have come to Turkey’s support is rather long. For example, both Russia and Ukraine have rushed to extend assistance. Understandably, possessing more means, the Russian contribution has been more comprehensive but everyone knows that the Ukrainians were also present at a difficult time for themselves. India has also intervened in a substantial way, perhaps not to be outdone by Pakistan that has engaged in various acts of generosity. American and European Union support, on the other hand, is expected as part of Turkiye’s close relations with them.

So, let us turn to the original question? What will the political effects of earthquake assistance be on Turkey’s external relations, in particular with its neighbors? The clear answer: we will have to wait and see.