Xi Jingping’s visit does not mean that all is well
AFTER having been elected the third time as President, it is not surprising that Mr. Xi JingPing has made his first major international trip to Moscow. Russia and China, rivals in the past, have been moving closer together during the past years. Recent developments in which the US has identified both as rivals in an anti-Western front has pushed the two countries closer together, possibly closer than they might have wanted.
The American initiated trade embargo against Russia after its attempted invasion of Ukraine, also adopted by the EU has constituted a boon for China. It has been able to get the oil it badly needs from Russia at reduced rates since its export to the West was curtailed. There are projects to ship more natural gas to China. Furthermore, the Russian market, previously saturated with Western products, is now open to Chinese penetration. There is no question that trade between the two countries would not have reached its current levels if it were not for the Ukrainian invasion.
Mr. Xi’s visit to Moscow has been accompanied by questions regarding whether China will export military wares to meet Russia’s needs in its faltering campaign to wrest territory from Ukraine. Mr. Xi has denied such intentions. It is possible that China is already sending and will continue to send some arms and munitions. Nevertheless, it is clear that China does not want to appear as if it were backing Russia’s Ukrainian intervention without reservation. After all, it has been trying to build an image as a global peacemaker. Recently, it pulled a coup by announcing that it had persuaded the Iranians and the Saudis to establish diplomatic relations and talk about settling their differences.
Furthermore, although it is viewed as being no more than a goodwill gesture at the moment, its offer of a peace plan constitutes an indirect way of reminding the Russians that China is interested in a negotiated settlement. It is interesting that while the Americans immediately expressed skepticism about China’s offer, Ukraine has not responded negatively. Neither side appears ready to negotiate anytime soon, but if and when such a contingency arises, as a country that has good relations and wields some influence with Russia, China might assume an important role in bringing about a settlement.
Are China and Russia going to be the leading countries in an anti-Western Bloc that is in the making? Looking at current appearances, it is tempting to answer in the affirmative but a close examination of the idea might be useful. The two countries are treating each other as equals but is that a sustainable position? Russia is a declining power, trying to reclaim superpower status mainly because it possesses nuclear weapons. Its economy compares to that of a country like Italy, but it derives much of its income from exporting raw materials. It tries to achieve its goals by employing military means although it has become clear that it does not possess the conventional military machine that everyone had feared.
China, on the other hand, has a growing economy the size of which is next to that of the US, expecting to move into the first place in the foreseeable future. It has developed successful economic links with many countries in Asia and Africa where Chinese credit and contractors have constituted the driving force of infrastructural investments. Despite significant problems, its trade with major economies of the world continues to be voluminous. It is also trying to develop more sophisticated weapons systems. These observations suggest that the partnership is not between equals and that, unless Russia becomes willing in the long run to accept Chinese leadership, the current close ties may represent a passing stage in their relationship.
There are also other complications. China has been trying to develop good relations with Central Asian countries and those of the Caucasus, both part of the former Soviet Union. These countries want to reduce their dependence on Russia and to develop new economic relations that would enable them to resist demands that it makes on them. China, therefore, has to play a delicate game of expanding its economic and political relations with these new states while maintaining good relations with Russia. To cite an example, these states are all interested in the Belt and Road project which they hope will go through their country, allowing them to be integrated to global markets and enjoy the economic prosperity such links would bring them. Since these would likely reduce their economic links with Russia, would the latter genuinely welcome such a change?
The list of developments that would complicate the relationship does not stop here. For example, the further weakening of Russia might encourage the appearance of centrifugal tendencies in the Federation that might force China to adopt positions that Russians would not approve of. In short, Jingping’s visit may not mean that all will be well in the long run. I suspect, both sides are aware of this reality despite pronounciations of an insoluble friendship.