THE U.S. HARRIS POLL AND TURKEY’S GENAR RESEARCH COMPANY
RATHER than huge well-known companies, it is the smaller niche polling firms that focus on social research which provide the most accurate estimation of societal trends
U.S. elections were held on Tuesday and the results saw Republicans and Democrats neck and neck. Although the election is regarded as nip and tuck, Democrats achieved a precise majority in the House compared to Republicans. These results may become a chance to restrain U.S. President Donald Trump’s sanctions rush. My main objective in this column is to focus on research companies’ failure to provide insight on the previous election. Even though some companies estimated the results correctly, media worldwide predicted that Hillary Clinton would likely win, but in the end, Donald Trump won the elections. As a result, the large research companies took significant hits because of their misguided predictions. Unfortunately, because they have no widespread media coverage globally, smaller companies that predicted the results correctly were not given priority. A few days before this election, Mark Pen reported estimations by his own company, The Harris Poll, and asserted outstanding success based on the results. Here is a sample of the survey by percentages: l Did you hear about the Khassoghi killing? (Yes, 75) l Saudi Arabia must be penalized / No, I don’t want a breakdown of relations because it’s more important to protect Israel and restrain Iran. (63 / 37) l Should the U.S. firmly guard guilty U.S. citizens overseas despite the critical risk of diplomatic crises? (Yes, 80)
l Should the U.S. protect foreign journalists? (Yes, 58)
l General situation of the country. (Good, 39 / Bad, 53)
l Economic situation of the country. (Good, 48 / Bad, 38)
l Do you like President Trump? (Yes, 46 / No, 54) l Is Donald Trump determinant on your choice? (Yes, 73 / No, 27)
l If so, what is your view about Donald Trump? (Supporter, 33/ Opponent, 40)
l For Republicans, which one is more important? Donald Trump or the party? (46 / 25)
l Who are you going to vote for? (Democratic Party, 37 / Republican Party, 37)
l Do you like the parties? Democratic Party. (Yes, 41 / No, 59) Republican Party. (Yes, 41 / No, 59)
l Voters’ Prioritization of Needs. (Important / Unimportant)
l Health care Reform. (Important, 64 / Unimportant, 10)
l Health Insurance – pre-existing conditions. (Important, 63 / Unimportant, 10)
l Migrant Policy. (Important, 60 / Unimportant, 14) l Border Security. (Supportive, 58 / Against, 15) l My Feelings about Donald Trump (Positive, 55 / Negative, 20)
Similarly, Turkey also conducts surveys and hosts numerous research companies. In fact, the “Youth Survey in Turkey: Researching Industry in Turkey” dates back four decades. In the beginning, Turkish research companies worked by imitating Western models, but over time their work elicited great results and saw success.
The supportive attitude of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) governments has contributed greatly to the remarkable development of the research industry. We established the Genar Research Company 20 years ago. Even though it is a name-brand research company for political research and drew attention with its accurate election estimations, our institution has made a tremendous impact on social research as well.
Some of the hot topics of 2002 such as “Urbanity Consciousness” and “Within the Scope of Social Fabric: Disabled People, Gypsies, Drug Abuse and Addiction and Poverty” were topics of research conducted by Genar. Following these remarkable studies was “Soccer and Violence,” seen as a pioneering study back then; the “Politics in Turkey and Political Terms” study was of a similar nature.
As for the 2018 presidential elections, the company estimated within approximately 1 point of the actual results, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan chalking up 51.5 percent of the vote. Three months before the elections, the company also suggested that the People’s Alliance would get 54 percent of the vote and the Nation Alliance 36 percent.
Last week, Genar published a significant report entitled, “Youth in Turkey” for the Turkey TGSP NGOs Youth Platform. The research presented to the presidency by the platform made quite an impact on the media. Leading columnists even went on to argue the content of the report.
The importance of repetition, year after year, has to be kept in mind for the durability of social research’s benefits. While the academic lifespan of political research may be very short, the influence of social research may create a continuous perennial impact from a scientific point of view.