Industrial output up 8.8% in 9th straight monthly rise

TURKEY’S industrial output rose 8.8% year-on-year in February, data showed yesterday, climbing for a ninth consecutive month, reflecting continued economic recovery despite pandemic-related restrictions.

Month-on-month, industrial production surged 0.1% in February on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said.

In a Reuters poll, the annual growth in output was forecast at 8.9%.

Industry and Technology Minister Mustafa Varank said the upward trend in industrial production has continued despite troubles in global supply chains.

Varank said Turkey was among the G-20, a group of rich and developing countries, that managed to increase their annual output the most.

Many Turkish factories halted operations a year ago, soon after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded. Output dropped 31.4% in April and 19.9% in May before recovery began in June.

After a strong economic rebound in the second half of 2020, new virus-related measures were adopted in recent months.

Turkey’s economy expanded 1.8% in 2020, one of only a few globally to avoid a contraction due to the pandemic.

Turkey imposed curfews, weekend lockdowns and restaurant closures in December but manufacturing and the broader economy was unaffected. Some of the restrictions were eased in March, then re-imposed in April due to surging COVID-19 cases.

Economists expect growth to return to near its potential rate of 5% this year with vaccinations and a tourism rebound.

On a monthly basis, by sub-sectors, the mining and quarrying index was down by 2.3% in February, while manufacturing and electricitygas-steam-air-conditioning supply indices increased by 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

Annually, mining and quarrying, and manufacturing indices rose by 15.9% and 9.3%, respectively, while the electricity-gas-steam-air-conditioning supply index posted a decline of 0.8% in the same month.

The industrial output jumped 11.4% year-onyear in January, the data showed.

“Even though industrial production shows a fluctuating pattern in January and February, the growth trend continues,” said Enver Erkan, a chief economist at Istanbul-based private investment firm Tera Yatırım.

Touching on leading indicators of the country – such as retail sales and turnover indices, exports and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – which are strong, he underlined that all these factors support the overall economic growth outlook and add weight to predictions of good growth in the first quarter of the year.