Prospects for peace in Syria
The civil war in Syria has been at a stalemate for a long time. Even though minor conflicts continue to occur in different regions of the country, there are currently no significant conflicts, casualties and humanitarian trauma in the field. Before the eruption of the Syrian civil war and the ensuing entrance of global powers into Syria, Turkey was exerting a superior influence on its neighboring country. In retrospect, it is necessary to question whether all this bloodshed, turmoil and destruction originated from a desire to weaken Turkey’s rising power in the region.
When the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power in 2002, its leadership had two grand visions regarding Turkey’s future. On the one hand, the AK Party aimed to abolish the long-standing military tutelage by consolidating democracy and the rule of law in line with Turkey’s candidacy for European Union membership. Starting with the coup d’etat of May 27, 1960, the 50-year-long military tutelage over civilian politics was finally abolished in 2016.
On the other hand, the AK Party has adopted a proactive foreign policy approach, rejuvenating Turkey’s influence in the region. After a long period of introversion, Turkey has emerged as a regional power, especially in the Middle East. Relying on the Ottoman legacy of law and justice, Turkey began to rehabilitate relations with Middle Eastern countries.
Before the eruption of the Syrian civil war, Turkey attempted to establish a common regional market with Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. During the rule of Hafez al-Assad, Syria took serious steps toward reforming the state structure and reconstructing relations with Turkey. The Syrian authorities and the Turkish Foreign Ministry jointly opened a customs gate between Syria and Turkey. A former diplomat described this development as a casus belli for other players in the region, which interpreted the rapprochement between the two countries as a change of order in the Middle East.
When the Arab Spring erupted, the international public was optimistically supportive of the Arab people’s longing for living in prosperous democratic countries. As Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen rapidly moved toward establishing democratic regimes, no one expected that the Arab Spring could turn into a nightmare for the region.
The Egyptian revolution ended with a coup d’etat, while Tunisia currently fluctuates between democracy and military rule. After being dragged into a civil war, Libya only recently achieved relative stability thanks to Turkey’s intervention.
While mass protests turned into a full-fledged civil war in Syria, the Turkish state was waging an existential war against the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), which for decades penetrated the depths of the state structure. Amid Ankara’s war against terrorist organizations, Turkey decided to support NATO allies for a regime change in Syria. However, the member states in the Friends of Syria Group overlooked not only an inevitable Iranian and Russian intervention in favor of the Syrian regime but also a possible proliferation of paramilitary and terrorist organizations, which would further destabilize Syria.
At this moment, Turkey began to negotiate with Russia and Iran for protecting Syria’s territorial integrity. This proactive and independent policy paid off, and the Syrian civil war has remained frozen, if not ended, since this cooperation began.
After launching a war in Ukraine, Russia was met with more resistance from Ukraine than it expected. Concentrating its energy on the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, Russia had to limit its influence in Syria. Meanwhile, Iran struggles with a heavy economic bottleneck due to the long-standing international embargo on its economy. Even though both Iran and Russia support Syria’s territorial integrity, it is hard to decipher the true ambitions of the United States in Syria.
In this historical context, parties of the Geneva and Astana talks could take an initiative to relaunch the Syrian peace process under the auspices of the United Nations. Turkey has a critical position in establishing a new political order and consolidating peace and stability in Syria. As the Western powers lost their capacity to establish a new order, Turkey should take the lead in the reconsolidation of peace and stability in the Middle East.