Mayoral vote to test popular support in Turkish politics
THIS SUNDAY’S local elections look set to be a test of popular support for all competing sides, particularly for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which is aiming to reclaim cities it lost in 2019, including the country’s largest city of Istanbul and the capital Ankara.
On Sunday, March 31, polling stations will be open from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. in eastern provinces and from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. in the rest of the country. Initial results are expected by 10 p.m. on Sunday.
Analysts see the vote as a nationwide gauge of Erdoğan’s support and the opposition’s durability, especially that of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu of Istanbul. A tight race is expected in the city that is home to more than 16 million people and drives more than a quarter of the nation’s GDP.
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
In the last local vote in 2019, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) unexpectedly prevailed in Istanbul and Ankara and ended more than two decades of rule by the AK Party.
Erdoğan, who has ruled Türkiye for more than two decades and campaigned hard for the AK Party in recent weeks, launched his political career as mayor of Istanbul in 1994.
Almost 11 million people are eligible to vote in the city, the Supreme Election Council (YSK) says. Turnout in both general and local elections is very high in Türkiye at close to 90%.
İmamoğlu’s main challenger is the AK Party’s Murat Kurum, a former government minister. Polls place the two at neck-andneck for the city.
Last May, Erdoğan was reelected president and his alliance won a majority in Parliament in tight general elections – a result that splintered and disheartened an alliance of the CHP and other opposition parties.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
The budget of Istanbul metropolitan municipality, including its subsidiaries, dwarfed all other 80 cities in the country, at TL 516 billion ($16.05 billion) in 2024. The budget of the second city, Ankara, is TL 92 billion.
Controlling big cities and their budgets can give parties a say over financing, contracts and job creation, boosting their popularity on the national stage.
Istanbul holds special importance for Erdoğan as he rose to the national political stage during his time as mayor between 1994 and 1998.
İmamoğlu has emerged as the opposition’s main alternative to Erdogan. Analysts say if he wins a second mayoral term, he will very likely run in the next presidential vote, while a loss could stunt his career and leave the opposition in further disarray. Before that, an ongoing lawsuit that sentenced him to two years in prison for insulting public officials could end his political run entirely.
For Erdoğan, regaining Istanbul and Ankara would bolster his pursuit of a new constitution, which he has been pushing for more and more since last May.
The current Constitution was enforced in 1982 following a military coup that led to the detention of hundreds of thousands of people along with mass trials, torture and executions. Previous attempts to overhaul it have been mostly quelled by opposition parties. Erdoğan’s party says it’s looking for the input of “all parties” for a “democratic, inclusive and civil constitution.”
CANDIDATES
Murat Kurum, AK Party, Istanbul: Kurum, 47, was environment and urbanization minister from July 2018 until last June, leaving the post after the general elections in 2023. He was then elected as a member of Parliament for Istanbul. Born in Ankara, Kurum served at the Housing Development Administration (TOKI) from 2005 to 2009 and later as the general manager of Emlak Konut, a government-run real estate investment trust.
Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP, Istanbul: İmamoğlu, 52, originally from the Black Sea city of Trabzon, was a district mayor in the city before becoming Istanbul’s mayor. He won the 2019 election in Istanbul with the backing of an alliance of the CHP, the nationalist Good Party (IP), and the proPKK party, the Green Left Party (YSP). The IP and the YSP are running their own candidates this year, complicating İmamoğlu’s odds of a win by himself.
CHP’S Mansur Yavaş, AK Party’s Turgut Altınok: Pollsters say Ankara’s incumbent Mayor Mansur Yavaş, a former district mayor in Ankara, is ahead of AK Party challenger Turgut Altınok, another former district mayor.
OTHER PROVINCES
Turks will also vote in the other 79 provinces of the country, casting four votes in total: one for the mayor of their province, one for their district mayor, one for the district council and another for the local administrator of their neighborhood.
Other competitive cities include CHPrun Antalya, Bursa and Adana.