Foreign Trade Statistics February 2017
Exports USD 12.127 billion underlining a decline of 1.9%, and imports USD 15.820 billion with an increase of 1.6% compared to February 2016. The trade deficit rose to USD3.693 billion, a 15% increase with respect to February 2016. We find it rather normal.
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted month-on-month growth rates were similar for exports and imports.
We have already seen the impact of trade deficit worsening in CBT reserves.
Very little technological content in manufacturing exports: the share of high-tech products is only 3% whereas the same share in imports is 16.1%. This is a reflection of the technological status of Turkish manufacturing compared to overseas and might not change drastically going forward.
Germany is the Turkey’s leading export partner with USD1.119 billion. Also, the trade deficit with Germany is low since imports from Germany amount to USD1.439 billion. The trade with Germany is telling enough to require further comment.
We mainly import from China and Russia, with monthly figures of USD1.643 and USD1.304 billion. Again, this is telling.
However, exports to the EU are falling again with an EU share of 45.7% in Turkey’s total exports, as exports with the UAE and Iraq soar.
We see clearly that given the current level of oil prices, which account for most of the deficit, the same pattern will continue. Not a huge problem of balance of payments, but definitely a slowly but surely rising current account deficit this year.
Net exports will contribute negatively to GDP in 2017 as well. No drastic change on that front. However, we do not expect the foreign trade gap to widen at the speed of February in the rest of the year.