Qual ty or quant ty

Dünya Executive - - REPORT - Ercan Erguzel, econom st, Morgan Stanley

Due to mark to market 1Q17 and ncorporat ng stronger-than-expected cred t growth, we are rev s ng up our growth forecast for 2017 by 1% to 4.3% yOy. We also note two med um-term concerns for growth: the r s ng share of construct on and ad m n sh ng contr but on from loans to econom c growth. Growth n 2Q17 at 5.1% year-on-year was n l ne w th our call wh le sl ghtly worse than the consensus expectat on at 5.3%. The 1Q17 pr nt was rev sed up by 0.2% to 5.2% year-on-year. We have two med um-term concerns: f rstly, the share of construct on expend ture n GDP and the ongo ng r se of GDP growth and secondly, the marg nal contr but on from loans to GDP growth s dm n sh ng gradually. To create the same mpact on nom nal GDP, loans should expand by fourfold today compared to 2004. (Sept. 11)

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