Extended momentum

Dünya Executive - - REPORT - Kub lay Ozturk, econom st, Deutsche Bank

The Turk sh economy cont nued to expand strongly n Q217 thanks to res l ent pr vate consumpt on and external demand as well as a remarkable rebound n nvestments (construct on). Cred t mpulse f nally peaked n August wh le f scal mpulse seemed to have rema ned strong n the early part of the th rd quarter. Base effects n 3Q17 should also boost th s year’s annual performanc­e. A weak Turk sh l ra and res l ent European demand are l kely to cont nue to support exports ahead, albe t probably on a dmnshng scale compared to 1H17. Accord ngly, we now expect the Turk sh economy to expand by 4.8% year-on-year (versus 4.3% prev ously) after 3.2% n 2016. For next year, we marg nally ncrease our forecast to 3.7% yearon-year; yet rema n po sed for some decelerat on g ven that most of the current dr vers reflect front-loaded domest c demand from the future n the absence of any welcome s gnal for a h gher potent al GDP. R sks are t lted to the ups de, ma nly due to the government’s ncl nat on to keep growth at compet t ve levels through f scal, cred t and monetary measures. The fact that the GDP ser es st ll requ res some t me to settle down follow ng the recent rev s on n the Nat onal Accounts poses ups de r sks.

(Sept. 11)

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