Assumed dollar rate for 2018: 3.77

Dünya Executive - - COMMENTARY -

Government­s can’t predict or set a target for foreign exchange rates. But to be able to prepare the plans it’s inevitable for them to make an assumption of the dollar rate to express some economic figures in dollar terms. Thus, the government’s assumed dollar exchange rate in 2018 is 3.77. According to its medium-term plans, the dollar exchange rate is predicted to be an average of 3.61 this year. The CPI increase is expected to be 7%, the deflator is expected to be 6.1% for 2018 and the dollar exchange rate will increase by 4.4%. The dollar exchange rate average year-to-date is 3.60. Thus a horizontal trend is expected until the end of the year. According to medium-term plans, the dollar exchange rate for 2019 is assumed as 3.95 and 4.06 for 2020.

Income per capita falls

Although the growth rate is expected to rise by 5.5% this year, income per capita, which last year stood at $10,883, is expected to decline to $10,579. That is partly due to a hefty rise in the dollar exchange rate, which was an average of 3.02 last year, with calculatio­ns assuming 3.61 this year. However, income per capita is expected to increase to $11,409 in 2018, $12,100 in 2019 and $13,024 in 2020. For these prediction­s to come true there will need to be a heavy dependence on the realizatio­n of the predicted growth rate and trends in the dollar exchange rate.

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