Incomprehens ble

Tim Ash, strateg st, Bluebay Asset Management

I’m not sure about the words “level of caut on n monetary pol cy strengthened and that t ght stance w ll be cont nued dec s vely.” The Central Bank of Turkey says one th ng and does the oppos te. They had the chance to h ke last week and bottled t. These are just warm words w th zero effect. As Cet nkaya sa d, the bank has rev sed up ts headl ne forecast for year-end by 110 bas s po nts h gher, to 9.8%, core inflati on is ri si ng, the current account defi ci t s wi deni ng and consumpt on demand s strong. Even w th nflat on more than double ts target, at 11.2%, the bank st ll d d not ra se nterest rates last week. Incomprehens ble. Well, not really. The message s that the pol t cal mperat ve s dom nant here n, w th the Erdogan adm n strat on go ng for growth and w ll ng to r sk macro f nanc al stabi l ty in a bi g gamble. Any semblance of bank ndependence has flown out of the w ndow. (Nov. 1)