The strategic importance of the HDP
With the inclusion of the Grand Unity Party (BBP) in the AK Party-MHP alliance, which was established after the 2015 elections and has grown in strength since then, the one manoriented alliance is now complete for the June 24 elections.
The so-called Public Alliance exhibits features of the ideological terrain of nationalist-conservative movements seen at the height of the Cold War and mainly feeds off that memory. The AK Party staff should not have presumed that the five divergent parties in the opposition would form an alliance simply because they invented a method to save the MHP from the 10 percent threshold by keeping it valid for everyone in the alliance. They set unexpected things in motion. Four of the five parties came together in a national-conservative counter alliance with a democratic tone against Erdoganism. Suddenly, there is a possibility that the Erdogan alliance may lose the majority in the parliament. But there is one more crucial condition for this possibility to happen: the HDP must stay above the threshold. Everyone knows that if the HDP stays below the threshold, the vast majority of seats they have will go to the AK Party. And the AK Party will get a majority in the Parliament alone, even if it does not get enough votes. If Erdogan is elected as president, the possibility of stopping the “presidential government system,” which will be referred as Erdoganism in the political literature, will no longer be possible in parliamentary politics.