Will deposit interest reach 25 percent?
There are two confusing data sets in the deposit interest figures. One of these sets shows the average interest rates of all the banks according to maturities. The final rate, 16.38 percent, is from July 20 according to the average of all maturities. This is the average of all the banks and all maturities.
The other dataset allows us to see the highest interest rate that banks actually apply to deposits. These rates may have been applied only by one bank to only one depositor, or more than one bank may have applied the same rate. We do not know that details. What we know is which interest rate was applied to which maturity in June.
According to the rates the Central Bank has compiled from the banks, the highest interest rate applied to deposits with a maturity up to one month increased from 18.40 percent in May to 21 percent in June.
The highest increase in May, 3.50 points, was seen in deposits with a maturity of up to three months. The highest interest with this maturity in June was 21.50 percent.
For six-month, one-year and more than one year maturities, the highest interest rates were 20.20 percent, 21 percent and 20.35 percent, respectively.
Average 15.09 percent
It is useful to emphasize once more: the rates we transmit represent the June average. The average interest rate applied by the entire banking system in June was 15.09 percent. We can’t give an average for the highest rate for June, but at least the truth is clear: The highest interest actually applied in June is above 20 percent for all maturities. So while banks did apply rates above 20 percent in some cases, they paid very low interest to depositors who quietly opened an account without making a bargain, which explains the large discrepancy between the average interest rate and the highest.
Towards 25 percent?
Money is so valuable now that banks are offering 20 percent interest. As the 20 percent mark was exceeded with the highest rates in June, the actual interest rate probably went up much more in the period we are in.
Let’s not be surprised if we see 2324 percent in July and 25 percent in August. As the Central Bank announces the highest rates banks applied physically on a monthly basis and a little bit late, it will take some time for us to see the July and especially the August data.