Confidence in economy back to 2008 levels

Dünya Executive - - COMMENTARY -

The first ugly truth: The consumer confidence index prepared jointly by TurkStat and the Turkish Central Bank through a consumer trend survey never hit 100, which is the threshold for optimism.

So people didn’t trust in the economy for even one month over the last fifteen years. Remaining persistent­ly pessimist. The consumer confidence index data for October were released last week.

And that was the second ugly truth: The consumer confidence index declined to 57.3 in October. This is the third lowest value over the entire 178 months.

There was a global crisis from 2008-2009 and Turkey was affected, too. The consumer confidence index hit 55.7 and 56.7 during November and December 2008. It’s been ten years now but we are back at 2008 levels.

But at least then we had the excuse of a global crisis. If our economy is doing well and there is really no problem, as some people insist, why don’t consumers trust in the economy? Or is the consumer being ungrateful by saying,“I’m not doing well soI don’t trust in the economy” despite just some minor challenges?

It may get worse n November

The rise in foreign exchange rates makes problems in the economy even bigger and has a demoralizi­ng effect on citizens. As we all know, in all the economic data the foreign exchange rate is the index consumers are most sensitive to.

The consumer confidence index fell by by 13.2 percent in September and 3.4 percent in October. This relative improvemen­t reflects the improvemen­t in the exchange rate in October.

But there was another rise in foreign exchange rates right after statements regarding troubles with the AKP-MHP alliance. If this rise continues and becomes permanent during November, we can assume that the consumer confidence will decline further. We may look back on October data as a fleeting moment of happiness.

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