Safeguards aga nst hard Brex t
Am d all the no se, Pr me M n ster Theresa May seems to be manag ng the f rst hurdle. The attempt to topple her led by hard l ne Euroscept c Conservat ve MP Jacob Rees-Mogg appears to have petered out. On ts own, that doesn’t ra se her chances very much to get her current deal through parl ament. PM May argues the alternat ves to her deal are much worse – for the Tor es and the UK. The EU had agreed to beef up the comm tments on the future trade, wh ch boost her chances of gett ng her deal through parl ament n a f rst or – poss bly - a second vote at the marg n. St ll, we see a ser ous r sk that PM Theresa May w ll not succeed. After all, the plans for future trade are not legally b nd ng. They m ght not do much to soften the most ardent opponents of May’s deal. The Conservat ve-DUP all ance has only a 13-seat work ng major ty n the House of Commons. If no oppos t on MPs back May’s deal, t would only take a small group of Government MPs to prevent t from pass ng through the Parl ament. Th s h ghl ghts the r sk of a no deal hard Brex t, wh ch we put at 20 percent. But gett ng from a reject on of May’s current deal to a “no deal” hard
Brex t s not as stra ghtforward as t m ght seem. Unt l now, the Br t sh government has enjoyed a nearmonopoly over shap ng the UK’s approach to Brex t. Now that the PM has agreed on the w thdrawal treaty and a pol t cal declarat on for the future UK-EU partnersh p w th the European Un on, the nfluence of parl ament ncreases s gn f cantly.