WHY IS TURKEY DEPENDENT ON MONEY INFLOWS?

Dünya Executive - - OVERVIEW -

Accord ng to A. Levent Alkan, Head of Research at Den z Portfol o Management and da ly DUNYA column st, there s a d rect relat onsh p between money nflow and growth n Turkey. “When our nat onal economy has money n pocket, our growth hor zon appears to be much w der,” he says, not ng that the per ods shown w th arrows

and c rcles n the chart show s m lar t es.

Notably, th s synchron zed movement over the 20052018 per od ncludes the global cr s s of 2008 and the European debt cr s s of 2011 and reaches the th rd quarter of 2018. The fact that the downward arrows are parallel s sol d proof of the l nkage between net secur t es growth and the d rect on of growth of the nat onal ncome. Over the per ods ns de the c rcle, one cannot separate between d rect on of fore gners’ net purchase of secur t es and nat onal ncome growth. “Fourth quarter growth, wh ch th s chart nd cates, may exceed the 1.6 percent n the th rd quarter and reach 1.9 percent,” he says.

The ma n reasons for th s l nkage between money nflows and growth n Turkey, Alkan says, nclude: 1) Our weak entreprene­ursh p globally; 2) An educat on system that does not correspond to the needs of ndustry, serv ce and agr culture. 3) The weakness n our female employment rate, wh ch s st ck at 50 percent; 4) Our long-stand ng lack of competence n both the publ c and pr vate sectors. 5) The press ng need for a healthy legal system.

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