CONTINUE DECLINE

The graph calculates the change on a quarterly bas s us ng the raw nd ces as t shows the actual product on level, wh ch s not based on any assumpt ons. It clearly reveals how badly the quarterly-based course of ndustr al product on was n 2017 and 2018. Product on carr ed out n the f rst two quarters of last year was above 2017 f gures. Product on n the th rd quarter was almost the same as 2017. In October and November, t was 5.3 percent below 2017.

It s l kely that there was a much h gher product on decl ne n December. Accord ng to the ndustr al product on ndex, wh ch s calculated w th 2015 as the base year, the ndex n December 2017 reached a record-break ng level of 130. The average ndex for the January-November per od last year was s 114.2. In November, t was 116.7 and s expected to be below 2017 n December. The last quarter w ll be lower by 5.5-6.0 percent compared to the last quarter of 2017, a drop that w ll negat vely affect GDP.

It s not surpr s ng that the decl ne n ndustr al product on w ll cont nue n the f rst half of th s year. Th s s due to a relat vely h gh level of product on n the f rst half of last year. The base effect and the d ff cult es exper enced n procur ng product on nputs due to the r costs w ll put downward pressure on ndustr al product on.