Export vision should be re-addressed
When the 2023 Export Plan was formulated, the absolute figure that world trade would achieve was almost 50 percent higher than current predictions. Turkey’s share of this figure was expected to be between 1.5 and two percent. Thus, at the 100th year of the foundation of the Republic of Turkey, exports were expected to reach $500 billion.
The instability in the Middle East and bottlenecks experienced in the EU economy caused a decline in Turkey’s exports while developments since the 20082010 period, when the contours of the plan were being outlined, created a serious slowdown in world trade figures. Therefore, since last year, the target is not announced as an absolute figure but as a percentage. The reason for this lies in the subtitle below.
“L fe does not come as planned, but as t comes ...”
Obviously, drawing a vision for the future by looking at the figures at hand is not a task to be accomplished with the science of economics. The pace of political, sociological, demographic and technological developments is among the issues to be considered when preparing such a vision.
It is important where you place the end of the compass while preparing a vision of the future. We call it a reference point. The reference point should not be variable as much as possible. For example, if technological development is chosen as a reference point, significant errors may arise in future predictions. This is because tech- nological developments have an open end and often develop faster than envisioned.
Similarly, when we take into consideration monetary developments, economic growth rates and other economic factors, significant deviations may occur from the predictions. This means that in order to be in the top 10 economies of the world approaching 2071 (1000th anniversary of Battle of Manzikert) a different economic model has to be implemented.
According to the OECD, World Bank and IMF data, it is mathematically proven that Turkey will be in the G20 countries with the current economic model. There is Saudi Arabia right below Turkey and there is Spain above. Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India and China will be at the top of the rankings. It is obvious that Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria is liable to develop faster than Turkey in terms of economic growth and added value. Turkey’s national income in 2050, estimated by international organizations, is around $5.2 trillion. Accordingly, it will probably remain in the G20 countries. Of course, these calculations are made in U.S. dollar terms. It is not easy to predict the reserve money in the world over the next 50 years. In order for researchers to have a clearer view, the descriptions will be made in U.S. dollars for the time being.
In the future, namely in 2071, it will be a poor statement to define Turkey only in terms of national income size and its ranking accordingly. National income size alone has no meaning unless Turkey becomes a global leader in arts, sports, music, science and technology.