Waiting for the Dodo resurrection

What a week; what a mess PM Theresa May’s government is in after the historic defeat on the Brexit plan on January 15. What’s the way forward now? And can the United Kingdom avoid a no-deal Brexit on March 29th? I’ll try to answer a couple of those questions in my capacity as a journalist living in this country since 2016.

As of writing, the Prime Minister will report back on her plans to the House of Commons on January 21, with a subsequent debate and vote promised for January29. That debate is scheduled to last all day and reports suggest that votes will be allowed on a range of alternative options. In the meantime, May has promised that she will consult with senior MPs from all sides on how the existing deal can be amended to attract enough support. However, so far she appears unwilling to drop any of her Brexit “red lines” including no future UK membership in a customs union. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is refusing to have a meeting unless the PM rules out a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

For the European Union to be willing to re-open the current agreement, the government must demonstrate that there is sufficient support for the proposed amendments to win a new vote in parliament. Given the multiple issues that parliament is divided on, it seems unlikely that the government can come up with a set of proposals that can change the minds of at least 116 MPs.

If the government persuades parliament to ratify the current or augmented agreement, then the UK will proceed to leave the EU on March29 and enter a transition period. During this period, the future relationship, including trade, customs arrangements and regulatory alignment, should be finalised. In the absence of a deal, the UK will be leaving the EU without a transition period and is likely to face significant trade tariffs by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, along with full customs checks and some other important memberships/associations with EU institutions lapsing. Given the fragile state of the UK economy, economists forecast a recession over 2019.

Market speculation is growing that Brexit will be delayed beyond the current leave date of March29. As the last word, May’s stubborn attitude may not help to resurrect the Withdrawal Agreement that has been defeated already. The agreement is as dead as Dodos.