Net employment loss exceeds 500,000
We ended the last week with data flow that competes to be the most pessimistic. Unemployment, industrial production, turnover and retail sales indices showed how the economy is shrinking. We started the new week with home sales data carrying the same pessimistic air.
Among these data, the unemployment that affects everyone primarily is very negative. November data, which reflects the average of the last quarter of the year, showed that employment decreased by 201,000 compared to the previous year.
A total crisis is predicted in employment. Employment generally falls during times of crisis. Before that, in 2009, there was an employment contraction measured by hundreds of thousands of people during the global crisis.
In fact, the real situation is much worse than what is shown in the sum of the figures because the employment shrinkage is limited by employment growth in the public sector. According to the latest public employment data released by TurkStat, the number of public employees in the last quarter of the year has increased by 749,000 people compared to the previous year. Part of the increase in public sector employment is due to the recruitment of subcontracted workers on the eve of the con- stitutional referendum, which amounts to 400,000 according to the data for the same period.
Even under current circumstances, the net new employment increase in the public sector is 350,000. This year’s increase is the highest since 2007 even when this data is excluded. It’s almost double of the previous highest increase.
When we consider the 201,000 decrease in total employment in the context of a 749,000 employment increase in the public sector, there was an employment loss of 950,000 in the private sector. When we consider that 400,000 of this was subcontracted workers, we can easily say that net employment loss in the private sector exceeded 500,000. This figure is frightening enough and a sign of crisis.
Moreover, the shrinkage in production and turnover in industry, the crisis in agriculture and construction, concordats and problems in the credit market are all signs that the situation will worsen in the coming months. There is no chance putting the brakes on this with new employment growth. Temporary employment maneuvers created using the Unemployment Fund cannot solve the crisis in employment. Moreover, it is not unlikely that the upward trend in employment in the public sector after the local elections will be reversed.