CBRT policy rate
Having said that, as explained in the Weekly Data Corner, inflation will fall and along with it so will the policy rate. Unless the fall in inflation is solely due to base effects, a sequence of cuts amount ng to 400-600 basis points can be unleashed starting from there.
CBRT maintained its tightening stance as expected. Furthermore, the forward guidance was also strong. As such, there seems no reason to expect a cut before the June meeting.
However, the ex ante real rate as measured by the distance between CBRT inflation expectations and the secondary market benchmark rate stands only at 2.67 now.
It was 9.44 n August and 7.81 in October. This is because the benchmark bond rates disconnected with the CBRT funding rate. It stands at 18.55 whereas funding is at 24.