to the rapid contraction in imports. The increase in exports was moderate, despite the rapid exchange rate hike.
If the decrease in imports was the result of a decline in intermediate, investment and consumer goods for domestic production, we could evaluate this decrease as a positive economic development. But unfortunately it is not. Instead, as the Industrial Production Index shows, production has also entered a downward trend almost parallel to the decline in imports.
The fastest decline in industrial production is in intermediate goods. Then comes investment goods. The decline in consumer goods production is more limited, but there is also a downward trend. Despite the sharp decline in imports and the moderate increase in exports, the decline in industrial production reveals that investments and consumption have experienced a downturn. A rapid downward trend in investment and domestic consumption is a sign of economic contraction. Moreover, increased unemployment, high inflation and low confidence have the possibility of creating a self-reinforcing spiral by increasing contraction in investment and consumption.