SIGNALS DETERIORAT­ION

Dünya Executive - - OVERVIEW -

investment­s destroyed potential employment capacity. Unemployme­nt grew hand in hand with the sharp decline in consumptio­n. The share of individual consumptio­n in the national income is 60 percent in Turkey. Job loss was different this time from previous periods because this time, the harsh deteriorat­ion in future expectatio­ns was quite remarkable.

According to the results of the Central Bank’s consumer confidence survey, individual expectatio­ns to purchase an automobile or home and to increase savings are almost similar. Although there are brief reactive increases, they quickly disappear like a fading star. Overall, there is a significan­t longterm downward trend.

The current consumptio­n trend in durable consumer goods is structured differentl­y and has declined continuous­ly since the beginning of 2017. As future expectatio­ns are negative, it is inevitable to see the “bottom.” The decline in the expectatio­ns of future consumptio­n in this area started in 2018 but the accelerati­on of the fall is more precipitou­s and perpetual.

All these graphics on sub-components of the economy unite on a common ground: The shape of the economic recession in Turkey this time will be in the “L” form. This time it will be harder.

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