investments destroyed potential employment capacity. Unemployment grew hand in hand with the sharp decline in consumption. The share of individual consumption in the national income is 60 percent in Turkey. Job loss was different this time from previous periods because this time, the harsh deterioration in future expectations was quite remarkable.
According to the results of the Central Bank’s consumer confidence survey, individual expectations to purchase an automobile or home and to increase savings are almost similar. Although there are brief reactive increases, they quickly disappear like a fading star. Overall, there is a significant longterm downward trend.
The current consumption trend in durable consumer goods is structured differently and has declined continuously since the beginning of 2017. As future expectations are negative, it is inevitable to see the “bottom.” The decline in the expectations of future consumption in this area started in 2018 but the acceleration of the fall is more precipitous and perpetual.
All these graphics on sub-components of the economy unite on a common ground: The shape of the economic recession in Turkey this time will be in the “L” form. This time it will be harder.