Early election debates and the arithmetic of the parliament
Local elections and the redo of the Istanbul elections seem to have created serious consequences on the political scene. As the internal debates at the AK Party filter into the public shpere, the preparations of Ahmet Davutoglu and Abdullah Gul-Ali Babacan teams for the establishment of a new party have accelerated. Whether these developments will lead to an early election is one of the main topics of discussion on the agenda. If there will be early elections, parliamentary and Presidential elections will be held together. Therefore, the main topic of the elections will be who will be elected President.
According to the new constitution, an early election decision can
be taken in two ways: Either president Erdogan abolishes the parliament or parliament decides on early elections with 360 votes. Given the balances and vote shifts in the local elections and the course of the economic crisis, Erdogan cannot be expected to accept an early election. On the parliament side, it is impossible to reach 360 votes without the participation of AK Party deputies in the current distribution of seats.
Even if all parties and all independent deputies vote in favor of early elections, the support of 62 AK Party deputies is still needed. Within the framework of ordinary political expectations, such a shift in the current AK Party deputies does not seem possible. Moreover, there is not much chance that the MHP, which has a threshold problem, will be making a move against Erdogan in early elections. In this case, even if all other parties unite, an electoral realignment of 111 votes from the AK Party-MHP front is needed.
As a result, the possibility of having early elections before 2023 does not seem likely. However, is that a good thing?
According to representatives of the business world, it is. However, we will soon see that this view is mistaken. The state of crisis that the economy has entered into will not be easily overcome, even after hitting the bottom. It is much more likely that we will go through a long crisis of repeated contractions after weak recoveries.
This will lead to intensification of social discontent as unemployment increases along with poverty, bankruptcies, confiscations and company transfers. Thus there will be an increase in economic, social and political instability. These developments mainly will force an early election, but this will be a more painful and shaky process.
Contrary to the general discourse, the period ahead will lead to increased uncertainty and instability. At this point, we cannot ignore that the main factor that is pushing the system in the direction of this dilemma is the new constitution and single-man administration that locks out the system.