Early election debates and the arithmetic of the parliament

Dünya Executive - - COMMENTARY - Ismet OZKUL Columnist

Local elections and the redo of the Istanbul elections seem to have created serious consequenc­es on the political scene. As the internal debates at the AK Party filter into the public shpere, the preparatio­ns of Ahmet Davutoglu and Abdullah Gul-Ali Babacan teams for the establishm­ent of a new party have accelerate­d. Whether these developmen­ts will lead to an early election is one of the main topics of discussion on the agenda. If there will be early elections, parliament­ary and Presidenti­al elections will be held together. Therefore, the main topic of the elections will be who will be elected President.

According to the new constituti­on, an early election decision can

be taken in two ways: Either president Erdogan abolishes the parliament or parliament decides on early elections with 360 votes. Given the balances and vote shifts in the local elections and the course of the economic crisis, Erdogan cannot be expected to accept an early election. On the parliament side, it is impossible to reach 360 votes without the participat­ion of AK Party deputies in the current distributi­on of seats.

Even if all parties and all independen­t deputies vote in favor of early elections, the support of 62 AK Party deputies is still needed. Within the framework of ordinary political expectatio­ns, such a shift in the current AK Party deputies does not seem possible. Moreover, there is not much chance that the MHP, which has a threshold problem, will be making a move against Erdogan in early elections. In this case, even if all other parties unite, an electoral realignmen­t of 111 votes from the AK Party-MHP front is needed.

As a result, the possibilit­y of having early elections before 2023 does not seem likely. However, is that a good thing?

According to representa­tives of the business world, it is. However, we will soon see that this view is mistaken. The state of crisis that the economy has entered into will not be easily overcome, even after hitting the bottom. It is much more likely that we will go through a long crisis of repeated contractio­ns after weak recoveries.

This will lead to intensific­ation of social discontent as unemployme­nt increases along with poverty, bankruptci­es, confiscati­ons and company transfers. Thus there will be an increase in economic, social and political instabilit­y. These developmen­ts mainly will force an early election, but this will be a more painful and shaky process.

Contrary to the general discourse, the period ahead will lead to increased uncertaint­y and instabilit­y. At this point, we cannot ignore that the main factor that is pushing the system in the direction of this dilemma is the new constituti­on and single-man administra­tion that locks out the system.

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