Real sec­tor con­fi­dence seems to be im­prov­ing

Dünya Executive - - COMMENTARY -

The cal­cu­la­tions of the Cen­tral Bank show that the con­fi­dence of the real sec­tor has be­gun to im­prove, though not par­tic­u­larly em­phatic or fast. The in­dex, fell be­low 100 in Au­gust last year and re­mained there for seven months. It went above 100 in March and April this year, fol­lowed by a fluc­tu­at­ing course, and fi­nally in Au­gust again ex­ceeded 100, reach­ing 102.5.

The big­gest con­trib­u­tor to this

in­crease was the turn­around in over­all out­look. In July, 10.4 per­cent an­swered “bet­ter” to the ques­tion: “What is your opin­ion on the gen­eral trend in your in­dus­try?” That rate climbed to 12.2 per­cent in Au­gust. The pro­por­tion of those who said the trend is “same” rose to 77.5 from 69.1 per­cent. The rate of those who were pes­simistic de­clined from 20.5 per­cent to 10.3 per­cent. Thus, the op­ti­mistic-pes­simistic dif­fer­ence, which was mi­nus 10.1 in July, was re­duced to 1.9 in Au­gust.

But there is a con­tra­dic­tion

The in­crease in the items ex­clud­ing gen­eral trends var­ied be­tween 0.5 points and 7.5 points. The high­est in­crease was seen in the re­sponse to the cur­rent to­tal order quan­tity, at 7.5 points. Much lower im­prove­ments were ex­pected in pro­duc­tion vol­ume, to­tal em­ploy­ment, ex­port order and fixed cap­i­tal in­vest­ment ex­pen­di­tures. In an ap­par­ent con­tra­dic­tion, op­ti­mism about the gen­eral trend in the in­dus­try was much higher.

This is not hap­pen­ing for the first time. Some­how, those who state that the order, pro­duc­tion vol­ume, em­ploy­ment and ex­port or­ders will in­crease less and even de­crease from time to time ex­press a much more pos­i­tive view about the gen­eral trend in the in­dus­trial sec­tor.

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