Real sector confidence seems to be improving
The calculations of the Central Bank show that the confidence of the real sector has begun to improve, though not particularly emphatic or fast. The index, fell below 100 in August last year and remained there for seven months. It went above 100 in March and April this year, followed by a fluctuating course, and finally in August again exceeded 100, reaching 102.5.
The biggest contributor to this
increase was the turnaround in overall outlook. In July, 10.4 percent answered “better” to the question: “What is your opinion on the general trend in your industry?” That rate climbed to 12.2 percent in August. The proportion of those who said the trend is “same” rose to 77.5 from 69.1 percent. The rate of those who were pessimistic declined from 20.5 percent to 10.3 percent. Thus, the optimistic-pessimistic difference, which was minus 10.1 in July, was reduced to 1.9 in August.
But there is a contradiction
The increase in the items excluding general trends varied between 0.5 points and 7.5 points. The highest increase was seen in the response to the current total order quantity, at 7.5 points. Much lower improvements were expected in production volume, total employment, export order and fixed capital investment expenditures. In an apparent contradiction, optimism about the general trend in the industry was much higher.
This is not happening for the first time. Somehow, those who state that the order, production volume, employment and export orders will increase less and even decrease from time to time express a much more positive view about the general trend in the industrial sector.