The big picture in employment
We broke the unemployment record in June with 13 percent rate. The trend indicates an unemployment rate of 15-16 percent for the end of the year. Moreover, we have been able to stay at 13 percent thanks only to an extraordinary development, which is not immediately clear. Let me clarify:
If we take the June to June period as a base, the labor force increased by 900,000 in 2015, 638,000 in 2016, 1,176,000 in 2017, and 675,000 in 2018. The average increase in these four years was 847,000 new workers per year. Last year, the labor force increased by a mere 137,000 in the last year. The key takeaway from this is that the number of unemployed stayed low because the number of workers added to the workforce was low.
You cannot ignore such important details about unemployment and then try to claim that things are good. Another example: The increase in the number of unemployed was more from May to May, with a smaller increase from June to June. For instance, seasonally-adjusted unemployment decreased from 14 percent to 13.9 percent, allegedly indicating an important trend. Of course, it would have been possible to interpret this as a continuation of the earlier trend if it had increased to 14.1 percent from 14 percent, because seasonally-adjusted unemployment had already been rising for months. But how does a one-month decline turn into a trend? It is unbelievable!
One in four unemployed is a postgraduate
From June to June, the number of unemployed people has increased by 1.6 million over the last five years. Secondary school graduates ranked first in this increase with 611,000 people. Then comes postgraduates with 507,000 people. The number of unemployed in vocational and technical high school graduates increased by 256,000. Can you see the magnitude of the problem that our education system generates! Almost a quarter of the total unemployed, which was 4,254,000 in June this year, are postgraduates, totaling 1,057,000 people.
17 postgraduates become unemployed every hour
The number of unemployed postgraduates has increased by 150,000 people in the last year. This increase means that 411 postgraduates join the army of the unemployed every day, wither because they lost their jobs or could not find work even though they graduated. More strikingly, 17 post graduates become unemployed every hour.
So who wants to claim now that there is an improvement in unemployment?