We grew but we seem poorer

Dünya Executive - - COMMENTARY -

Even if all pre­dic­tions re­gard­ing the growth and ex­change rate as­sump­tion in the New Econ­omy Pro­gram are re­al­ized without any de­vi­a­tion, the per capita in­come we will reach in 2022 will be below 2008, that is, fif­teen years ago. This year’s per capita in­come will also be below the level of ten years ear­lier, ac­cord­ing to the fore­casts.

When we talk about how much per capita in­come has in­creased, we can no longer com­pare it to ten years and fif­teen years ago; we have to go back fur­ther. Un­doubt­edly, the level of per capita in­come is the most ba­sic in­di­ca­tor of the ex­tent to which cit­i­zens live in pros­per­ity in a coun­try. The ex­is­tence of fac­tors such as poor in­come distri­bu­tion should of course be taken into ac­count, but per capita in­come is still the most ba­sic in­di­ca­tor.

Let’s put this fact aside and take a look at our sit­u­a­tion. Even if the tar­gets of the New Econ­omy Pro­gram cov­er­ing the years 2020, 2021 and 2022, an­nounced by Trea­sury and Fi­nance Min­is­ter Berat Al­bayrak last week, are achieved without any de­vi­a­tion, the pic­ture at per capita in­come level will be un­pleas­ant. The pro­gram fore­sees that per capita in­come in 2022 will reach $10,534.

Which year will we com­pare this rate with? If we do a com­par­i­son with this year’s as­sump­tion of $9,093, we can talk about an in­crease of ap­prox­i­mately $1,500 dol­lars. If we had never seen $9,000 level in the past, such a com­par­i­son would be con­sid­ered cor­rect, and the in­crease of around $500 per year over the three-year pe­riod could be seen as sig­nif­i­cant. But we have ex­pe­ri­enced much higher lev­els in pre­vi­ous years. So now we’re go­ing to try to catch the level we lost.

27 per­cent de­crease in 5 years

Per capita in­come this year is ex­pected to be $9,093, a level of al­most a decade ear­lier. Per capita in­come in 2009 was $8,980. This year’s amount will re­main $3,387 below the per capita in­come peaked in 2013. The 2013-2019 dif­fer­ence points to a 27 per­cent de­crease.

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