We grew but we seem poorer
Even if all predictions regarding the growth and exchange rate assumption in the New Economy Program are realized without any deviation, the per capita income we will reach in 2022 will be below 2008, that is, fifteen years ago. This year’s per capita income will also be below the level of ten years earlier, according to the forecasts.
When we talk about how much per capita income has increased, we can no longer compare it to ten years and fifteen years ago; we have to go back further. Undoubtedly, the level of per capita income is the most basic indicator of the extent to which citizens live in prosperity in a country. The existence of factors such as poor income distribution should of course be taken into account, but per capita income is still the most basic indicator.
Let’s put this fact aside and take a look at our situation. Even if the targets of the New Economy Program covering the years 2020, 2021 and 2022, announced by Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak last week, are achieved without any deviation, the picture at per capita income level will be unpleasant. The program foresees that per capita income in 2022 will reach $10,534.
Which year will we compare this rate with? If we do a comparison with this year’s assumption of $9,093, we can talk about an increase of approximately $1,500 dollars. If we had never seen $9,000 level in the past, such a comparison would be considered correct, and the increase of around $500 per year over the three-year period could be seen as significant. But we have experienced much higher levels in previous years. So now we’re going to try to catch the level we lost.
27 percent decrease in 5 years
Per capita income this year is expected to be $9,093, a level of almost a decade earlier. Per capita income in 2009 was $8,980. This year’s amount will remain $3,387 below the per capita income peaked in 2013. The 2013-2019 difference points to a 27 percent decrease.