HOW DOMESTIC POLITICS COLONIZE FOREIGN POLICY, BY ILTER TURAN

AS THE U.S. enters what is likely to be remembered as one its most consequential election periods, its foreign policy is increasingly becoming a mere adjunct to domestic political considerations. President Donald Trump, facing a very real possibility of losing the presidential election in November, is turning up the heat on China in what appears to be a rather desperate, and nakedly cynical, attempt to create a bogeyman he can use to burnish his own national security credentials. The consequences, our chief political scientist argues, could be disastrous.

Adnan R. Khan: Strategic competition with China is nothing new. But Trump’s approach has been different. Can you talk about some of those key differences?

Ilter Turan: When it became apparent that China was the rising star in the world after the end of the Cold War, its relations with the US turned highly competitive. That competition has played out on both the strategic and economic fronts. For example, President •bama developed the idea of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was intended to integrate countries that encircle China into some sort of economic cooperation zone so as to prevent them from becoming too reliant on China or too open to Chinese economic penetration which, it was feared, would then lead to political and strategic outcomes.

When Mr. Trump came to office, he dropped that policy and began to pursue an entirely different line. He judged the economic relationship with China to be highly problematical, stealing jobs from the

U.S. He also viewed Chinese technological advancements as a security threat. Nevertheless, initially it seemed that Mr. Trump was still interested in keeping a working relationship with China and work for improvements. When he was running for office in 2016, his main targets were Canada and Mexico and the North American Free Trade Agreement.

After the NAFTA issue was “solved,” Trump, it appears, needed a new enemy and he chose China. This is something very different than the earlier strategic competition. In essence, it is rendering an external policy problem or competitive external relationship into an exclusively domestic political resource that he can use to mobilize voters to support him in the next election. This is a very different use of foreign policy than those based on strategic rivalries. •f course, this line of political behavior is not peculiar to Trump but he seems to be exploiting it to its fullest, not even calculating the possible problematic long term outcomes.

Adnan R. Khan: How do you think this will affect China’s position in the world? Is it a threat to the Communist regime? Ilter Turan: •ne thing that is becoming increasingly evident is that when Trump attacks China, no one else follows him. While other countries may perceive China to be a problem in terms of their strategic or economic interests, no single country is absolutely committed to following the line Trump is trying to advance. It is, therefore, not quite clear that he will be able to implement a fully successful anti-Chinese policy. The more substantive question is whether this is really the long term policy that he intends to follow. If he is playing an electoral game, then he will probably change course if he wins the election. But the course he is following is paved with problems. First, he is mobilizing the public against China and the public may be so mobilized that in order to retain its support, he may become a captive of the opinion he has created. Second, this is an interactive relationship. It’s not as if Trump is at liberty to do anything he likes while the Chinese and the rest of the world do not react. From that perspective, what he does may generate forces on the other side which he did not anticipate or which he cannot control.

For its part, China has come out appearing as a more responsible citizen in the global system of governance. China, to say the least, is not to be admired. It’s an increasingly authoritarian government. It is treating its minority populations disastrously. And now it is using this pandemic environment to increase its hold and influence in Hong Kong. But it is still perceived to be a more predictable and more reliable actor to deal with than Trump’s America.

Adnan R. Khan: How are Joe Biden and the Democrats responding? Are they offering any alternatives to Trump’s approach to China?

Ilter Turan: It seems at the moment that Trump has been successful in shaping the mood in the U.S. vis a vis China. Mr. Biden has felt somewhat obliged to go along with Trump and not offer a significant rival position. This is, of course, highly problematical because it is also robbing Biden of options should he be elected president.