GLOBAL TOURISM GROWS IN 2021, BUT SEVERELY LAGS BEHIND PRE PANDEMIC LEVELS: UNWTO

GLOBAL TOURISM EXPERIENCED a four per cent upturn in 2021 compared to 2020, with 415 million international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) versus 400 million.

However, this figure was 72 per cent below the pre-pandemic year of 2019, according to preliminary estimates by the UNWTO. This follows on from 2020, the worst year on record for tourism, when international arrivals decreased by 73 per cent.

The first 2022 issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer indicates that rising rates of vaccination, combined with the easing of travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols, have all helped release pent-up demand.

International tourism rebounded moderately during the second half of 2021, with international arrivals down 62 per cent in both the third and fourth quarters compared to pre-pandemic levels. According to limited data, international arrivals in December were 65 per cent below 2019 levels. The full impact of the Omicron variant and surge in COVID-19 cases is yet to be seen, said UNWTO.

Slow and uneven recovery

The pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveller confidence.

Europe and the Americas recorded the strongest results in 2021 compared to 2020 (+19 per cent and +17 per cent respectively), but still both 63 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

Africa saw a 12 per cent increase in arrivals in 2021 compared to 2020, though this is still 74 per cent below 2019.

Middle East arrivals declined 24 per cent versus 2020 and 79 per cent over 2019.

Asia and the Pacific arrivals were still 65 per cent below 2020 levels and 94 per cent when compared to pre-pandemic values as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.

Economic contribution

The economic contribution of tourism in 2021 (measured in tourism direct gross domestic product) is estimated at US$1.9 trillion, above the US$1.6 trillion in 2020, but still well below the prepandemic value of US$3.5 trillion. Export revenues from international tourism could exceed US$700 billion in 2021, a small improvement over 2020 due to higher spending per trip, but less than half the US$1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.

Average receipts per arrival are estimated to reach US$1,500 in 2021, up from US$1,300 in 2020. This is due to large pentup savings and longer lengths of stay, as well as higher transport and accommodation prices.

Outlook for 2022

According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts, 61 per cent of tourism professionals see better prospects for 2022. While 58 per cent expect a rebound in 2022, mostly during Q3, 42 per cent point to a potential rebound only in 2023. The majority of experts (64 per cent) now expect international arrivals to return to 2019 levels in 2024 or later. The UNWTO Confidence Index shows a slight decline in January-April 2022. A rapid and more widespread vaccination roll-out, followed by a major lifting of travel restrictions, and more coordination and clearer information on travel protocols, are the main factors identified by experts for the effective recovery of international tourism.

UNWTO scenarios indicate international arrivals could grow by between 30 per cent and 78 per cent compared to 2021, although this is still 50 to 63 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.