هوامش الدراسة

1- Alan C Isaak, Scope and Methods of Political Science: an Introduction to the Methodology of Political Inquiry, (Homewood: Dorsey Press, 1969), pp.134-135. 2- George Klosko, The Oxford Handbook of the History of Political Philosophy, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp.1 - 6. -3 محمـد عبـد هللا يونـس، إشـكالية االختـزال: االتجاهـات الجديـدة لظاهـرة عـدم االسـتقرار داخليـاً وخارجيـاً، ملحـق اتجاهـات نظريـة، عـدم االسـتقرار: مقاربـات تفسـيرية الضطرابـات األنظمـة السياسـية، السياسـة الدوليـة: العـدد ،197 يوليـو ،2014 صص 8 –10 4- Samuel H. Barnes, The Nerves Of Government: Models Of Political Communication And Control, Behavioral Science: Vol. 10, No. 1, 1965, pp. 81 – 83. 5- Richard Rhoda, political Stability and Institutionalization in Developing Countries, Public Data, Vol.6 , No.1, 197, pp. 38 - 39. 6- Seymour Martin Lipset, Stein Rokkan,Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments, in Peter Mair (ed.) ,The West European Party System, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 91-111. -7 أمـل حمـادة، معادلـة جديـدة: إعـادة تشـكيل العالقـة بيـن الدولـة والمجتمـع بعـد الثـورات العربيـة، ملحـق اتجاهـات نظريـة، السياسـة الدوليـة: العـدد ،189 يوليـو ،2012 ص ص 15-17 8- Stephen M. Walt, International Relations: One World, Many Theories, Foreign Policy, Vol. 110, Spring 1998. 9- A.F.K Organski, World Politics, (New York: Alred Knopd, 1968), pp. 293-295. 10- Nathaniel Beck, The Illusion of cycles in International Relations, International Studies Quarterly: Vol.35,1991,pp.470 - 474 11- Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, (New York: Vintage Books, 1989), pp.514-515 -12 محمـد عبـدهللا يونـس، تحـوالت النظـام الدولـي خـالل خمسـين عامـا، السياسـة الدوليـة: العـدد ،200 أبريـل ،2015 ص ص 98 .103 13- Michael Clarke, The Foreign Policy System: A Framework for Analysis, in Michael Clarke, Brian White (eds.), Understanding Foreign Policy: The Foreign Policy Systems Approach, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar 1989), pp. 27-59. 14- Carol B. Goldburg, The Accuracy of Game Theory Predictions for Political Behavior: Cumulative Voting in Illinois Revisited, The Journal of Politics: vol. 56, no. 4, 1994, pp. 885–900 15- Alan C Isaak, Op.Cit., pp. 136-137 16- John Wagner, Clinton’s Data-Driven Campaign Relied Heavily On An Algorithm Named Ada. What Didn’t She See?, Washington Post, November 9, 2016, accessible at: https://goo.gl/S1vAh2 17- Fredrick Barton, Karin Von Hippel, Early Warning: A Review of Conflict Prediction Models and Systems, (Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2008),pp.2-13 18- Gerome C.Glenn, Introduction To The Future Research Methodology Series, (Washington: Millennium Project, 1994), pp. 7-9. 19- Jennifer Gidley, The Future: A Very Short Introduction, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017), pp.44-50

20- Janna Anderson, Futures Studies Timeline, Elon University Website, 2007, accessible at: http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/predictions/futures%20studies%20timeline.pdf 21- Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era, (New Brunswick, New Jersey: Transaction Publisher, 1997), pp. 29-35 22- Ibid., pp. 18 – 21. 23- Oliver Markley, Visionary Futures: Guided Imagery in Teaching and Learning about the Future, American Behavioral Scientist: Vol. 42, No.3, November 1998, pp.522 – 530 24- Jim Dator, Future Studies, in William Sims Bainbridge (ed.), Leadership in Science and Technology, (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2011), pp. 32 – 40 25- Sohail Inayatullah, Causal Layered Analysis: poststructuralism as method, Futures: Vol.30, No.8, October 1998, pp. 815 – 829 26- Futures Toolkit: Tools For Strategic Futures For Policy-Makers And Analysts, (London: UK Office of Science, July 8, 2014), pp. 27 - 28. 27- Ibid., pp.51- 56 28- Richards J. Heuer, Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, (Washington D.C.: CQ Press, 2010), pp.104-106 29- Futures Toolkit: Tools For Strategic Futures For Policy-Makers And Analysts, Op.Cit., pp.110 – 111 30- Ian Miles, Ozcan Saritas, Alexander Sokolov, Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation, (Geneva: Springer International Publishing, 2016), pp.69 – 70 . 31- Ibid., pp. 169-171. 32- Marc Morje Howard, Meir R.Walters., Explaining The Unexpected: Political Science and Surprises of 1989 and 2011, Perspectives on Politics: Vol. 12 , No.2, July 2014, pp.394-397 33- Jeffrey Mervis, After 2-year battle, House Passes Competes Act On Mostly Party-Line Vote, Science Magazine, May 20, 2015, accessible at: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/05/after2-year-battle-house-passes-competes-act-mostly-party-line-vote 34- Elliot Kauffman, Political Science Abandons Its Soul, Stanford Review, February 16, 2016, accessible at: http://stanfordreview.org/article/political-science-abandons-its-soul/ 35- Richard N.Haass, A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order,(New York: Penguin Press, 2018), pp.77-81 36- Garret M. Graff, How Pollsters Missed The Bowling Alone Voters that Handed Trump The Presidency, Wired News, November 15, 2016, accessible at: https://goo.gl/7gLr8d - Nate Silver, Why FiveThirty Eight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else?, Five Thirty Eight, November11, 2016, accessible at: https://goo.gl/48SNzi 37- Jonathan Powell, Determinants of the Attempting and Outcome of Coups d’état, Journal of Conflict Resolution: vol. 56, no. 6, December 2012, pp.1017-1040. 38- Austria Rejects Far-Right Candidate Norbert Hofer In Presidential Election, The Guardian, December 4, 2016, accessible at: https://goo.gl/lHnUpy

39- Lars-Erik Cederman, Nils B. Weidmann, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison, American Political Science Review: Vol.105, No.3, July 2011, pp.478-480. 40- The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) project, World Bank Group, 2013, accessible at: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home 41- Marc Morje Howard, Meir R.Walters., Op.Cit., pp.394-397 42- Asef Bayat, Life as Politics: How Ordinary People Change the Middle East, (Redwood, CA: Stanford University Press, 2009), pp.56 - 64 43- Jack A. Goldstone, Robert Bates, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward, A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability, American Journal of Political Science: Vol. 54, No. 1 , January 2010, pp. 204-205 -44 محمــد عبــدهللا يونــس، الهــوة الفاصلــة: أدبيــات مــا بعــد التدخــل الدولــي فــي ضــوء التجــارب الدوليــة، ملحــق اتجاهــات نظريــة، السياســة الدوليــة: العــدد ،195 ينايــر ،2014 ص ص 34 31- 45- Walter Clemens, Complexity Science and World Affairs, (New York: SUNY Press, 2013), pp. 3-12 46- Chelsea Marie Baltes, Causes and Consequences of the Syrian Civil War, Master Thesis, University of South Carolina, May 2016, pp.52-157 47- John Waterbury, The Political Economy of Climate Change in the Arab Region, (New York: United Nations Development Program, 2013), pp.20-22 48- Erika Cudworth, Stephen Hobden, Anarchy and Anarchism: Towards a Theory of Complex International Systems, Millennium: Vol.39, 2010, pp.401-406 49- Suay Nilhan Açıkalın, Cemal Alpgiray Bölücek, Understanding of Arab Spring with Chaos The- ory – Uprising or Revolution, in Santo Banerjee, Sefika Sule Erçetin, Ali Tekin (eds.), Chaos Theory in Politics, (New York: Springer Science, 2014), pp. 37-38 50- Itamar Rabinovich, The End of Sykes Picot: Reflections on The Prospects of The Arab System, Saban Center at Brookings, February 2014, PP.1-9, accessible at: https://goo.gl/Bsg6rd 51- Suay Nilhan Açıkalın, Cemal Alpgiray Bölücek, Op.Cit., pp.31-45 52- Mohamed AbdAllah Youness, How climate change contributed to the conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa?, World Bank Voices & Views, October 10, 2015, accessible at: https:// goo.gl/TZdg7u 53- Joshua Cooper Ramo, The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do About It?, (New York: Back Bay Books, 2010), pp.25-40 -54 علــي جــالل معــوض، نهايــة الحــدود الفاصلــة بيــن الداخــل والخــارج فــي السياســة الدوليــة، ملحــق مفاهيــم المســتقبل، اتجاهــات األحــداث: العــدد 1، أغســطس ،2014 ص ص01 - .11 -55 محمـد عبـدهللا يونـس، اسـتيعاب الصدمـات: كيـف تتعامـل دول الشـرق األوسـط مـع التحـوالت اإلقليمية الكبـرى؟، المسـتقبل لألبحاث والدراسـات المتقدمـة، 8 يوليـو ،2017 موجود على الرابـط التالـي: https://goo.gl/xADsDY 56- David Turner, Credit Crunch Failure Explained To Queen, Financial Times, July 26, 2009, accessible at: https://www.ft.com/content/7e44cbce-79fd-11de-b86f-00144feabdc0

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