No Braveheart moment for Scotland

The proclamation that a Scotland divorced from the rest of Britain will be richer, healthier, more influential and fairer has not been substantiated

This time next year, the country known as the United Kingdom may be about to disappear. If Scotland’s separatist government gets its way in a referendum planned for September, the 300- yearold union of Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland — the US’ oldest and closest ally — will be on the road to disintegration. That is a dramatic, though accurate, way of describing the possible secession of Scotland from one of the world’s most successful political, social and economic unions.

The ties that bind the UK are strong, but there would be profound international implications should the Scottish people choose secession. The residual UK will still be a major player in the world, but upon losing a third of its land mass, five million of its popula- tion and a huge amount of credibility, its global standing will inevitably diminish.

The global balance will be substantially upset should one of the West’s key unions, and its second- biggest defence power, split up. The UK has always punched above its weight diplomatically and militarily. A breakup will have a serious effect on its role in the world — all the more so because Britain’s nuclear- deterrent base is in Scotland and those advocating separation have pledged to expel it. With the US and other countries viewing a possible British withdrawal from the European Union ( EU) as negative, how much more disturbing will they find a breakup of the country itself?

The ripple effects will not be limited to the UK. Other separatist movements in Europe are watching the Scottish de- bate with undisguised interest. In Spain, more than a million Catalans have turned out in the streets calling for independence. In the Basque Country, separatist violence has waned, but the desire for a separate state remains. In Belgium, whose unity hangs on a thread, Flemish nationalists have made it clear that if Scotland has a free pass to the EU and Nato, they will be next in line. There can be more breakaways to come.

In a fragile, unstable world where problems and solutions are going global, going local will benefit no one. Separatism offers little by way of comfort to worried populations. It promises more strife and dissension. Scotland’s nationalists gained control in the country’s devolved parliament two years ago. Now they like to say that everything will change but also stay the same.

It has been promised that Scotland will keep the same queen, the same single market and regulatory regime, the same currency and EU membership. Separatists pledge the same TV programming and membership in Nato. All these assertions were spelled out in a 670- page blueprint published last month by the Scottish government. Already, it is clear that serious questions about currency, taxation and pensions will not be answered until the breakup vote. The proclamation that a Scotland divorced from the rest of Britain will be richer, healthier, more influential and fairer has not been substantiated.

I doubt that my fellow Scots will take the drastic blind step that secession would require. Support in the polls refuses to rise above 30 per cent, but this is no romantic Braveheart moment. The separatists are deadly seri- ous, well- organised and well- funded.

Britain’s friends around the world need to pay attention. A dangerous historic event may soon be upon them — with few people outside the UK even noticing.