To finesse or not to finesse

Oscar Robertson, a former top basketball player nicknamed The Big O, said,“Some players are more physical than others, some play with more finesse. Some are just really great all-around players. So you have to change your game.”At the bridge table,you might have to change your game, in particular when the bidding helps you to place the missing key-cards. That is not relevant in this deal, but how should South plan the play in three no-trump after West leads the spade queen? South starts with seven top tricks: two spades, three hearts, one diamond and one club. He needs to take two more diamond tricks to get up to nine — how? This is not a finessing deal. If one of declarer’s diamond honours is captured (or covered) by the king, he will need the suit to split 3-3,which is unlikely (a priori 35.53 per cent). Instead, South should lead twice toward the hand with the two honours. He should win the first trick with dummy’s spade king and call for a low diamond. East will presumably play low, so South will win with his queen. He goes back to the board by leading his low heart to dummy’s jack.Then he plays a second low diamond toward his hand. Suppose East wins with his king and returns his second spade. Declarer wins with his ace, cashes his diamond jack, overtakes his heart queen with dummy’s king, cashes the diamond ace and claims. Lastly, note that it could cost to duck the first trick. If West is a genius, he will shift to the club queen. Then South would lose one spade, one diamond and three clubs.