Twitter, YouTube analysis unlocks Daesh tactics

Militants hold back in Kurdish areas to target Damascus and Baghdad

Tweets and YouTube videos by fighters from Daesh have allowed analysts to pinpoint their movements in Iraq and Syria, highlighting the group’s increasing push towards government strongholds.

The data compiled by Britain-based analysts from IHS Conflict Monitor, and shared exclusively with AFP, shows how Daesh is probing beyond the territory it currently holds and is pushing the bulk of its forces towards Damascus and Baghdad.

IHS ranks the most reliable Twitter and YouTube accounts from known Daesh militants, as well as opposition activists and government sources, using the geo-location data from around 4,000 entries a month to map attacks ranging from assassinations to large-scale bomb attacks.

“Daesh is shifting its attention to the weakened Syrian government at the expense of losing territory to the Kurds in northern Syria,” said Firas Abi Ali, head of Middle East analysis for IHS.

Little initiative

The IHS data from March to May showed Daesh was making a tactical decision not to launch offensives against Kurdish forces on the northern front, which could leave its forces vulnerable to air strikes.

“Neither the Kurds nor Daesh appear interested in changing that front line,” said Richard Jackson, deputy head of political violence forecasting at IHS. “That frees up Daesh terrorists to push towards the capitals.”

“They’re not strong enough to take Damascus because the strong Sunni threat in that region is [Al Qaida affiliate] Jabhat Al Nusra and Jaish Al Islam, but they will push towards the Damascus-Homs road,” cutting off the Syrian regime of Bashar Al Al Assad from his Alawite community’s coastal stronghold of Latakia.

Given the speed of their movement, Daesh terrorists have made little effort to disguise their locations on social media.