Defining days for Obama presidency
Several major potential foreign policy achievements, such as those with Iran, Europe and Asia-Pacific on the horizon, could help define his presidential legacy
At a moment when the eyes of much of the world are on Greece, one of the most critical moments in US President Barack Obama’s presidency is also fast approaching. Within a few days, it is possible that the president could secure not just a final, historic nuclear deal with Iran, but also sign into law domestic legislation passed by Congress that will enable two potentially game-changing trade agreements — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) — allowing the country to help write what US officials have called “the rules of the road” for the 21st century world economy.
The Iranian deal remains subject to frenetic diplomacy with a June 30 deadline fast approaching that the so-called P5+1 (United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany and France) have set for a comprehensive, permanent nuclear agreement. [Officials in Vienna said on Sunday that the deadline would be missed because of major differences] Despite domestic US and international criticism of such a deal, this would be a major victory for the White House that has the potential not just to help forge a lasting rapprochement with Iran.
It also has the potential to transform the wider geopolitics of the Middle East, and help consolidate Obama’s broader desire to enhance nuclear security. Here, as well as pushing nuclear diplomacy with countries like Iran and Russia, Obama has created the Nuclear Security Summit process to counter nuclear terrorism which he has described as the “most immediate and extreme threat to global security”.
On the trade policy front, Obama may soon be able to sign into law both Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and also Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) legislation following concerted lobbying efforts in Congress. TPA grants the White House the ability to finalise negotiations on the TPP and TTIP without significant congressional interference if negotiations are completed (the legislature must still approve final agreements, but only pass or reject, not amend, in straight up or down votes).
TAA, meanwhile, is a programme that seeks to mitigate the impact of imports felt by certain sectors of the US economy. The White House has previously insisted that it will only sign these into law if both the TPA and TAA measures are passed by Congress. TPP is a proposed deal between the US and at least 11 countries in the Americas and AsiaPacific (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam) that collectively account for about 40 per cent of world gross domestic product (GDP).
Moreover, the president also wants to secure TTIP with the 28 EU states. This would represent the largest regional free trade and investment agreement in history with the US and Europe accounting for more than 50 per cent of the world’s GDP. The fact that Obama’s second term legacy is being defined on the foreign, rather than domestic, policy front has become a relatively common pattern for re-elected presidents in recent decades. Since the 2012 ballot against Republican Mitt Romney, Obama has achieved very little domestic policy success.
His gun control bill was defeated and looks unlikely to be rejuvenated despite this month’s terrible shootings in Charleston; comprehensive immigration reform faces significant opposition in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives; and the prospect of a long-term budgetary ‘grand bargain’ with Congress in 2015 or 2016 looks very unlikely too. Moreover, implementation of his landmark health-care initiative has been perceived by many to have been botched.
Bigger diplomatic role
As well as Iran, TPP and TTIP, Obama could also secure other achievements to consolidate his presidential legacy on the international front. This includes security and defence policy where Washington is looking to significantly deplete Daesh’s (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) territorial foothold and capabilities in Iraq and Syria, whilst also stabilising the new national unity government in Afghanistan, headed by President Ashraf Gani, which has recently been subjected to Taliban attacks. In Europe, meanwhile, the administration is working in concert with leaders there, through sanctions, to bolster the position of Ukraine after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. And the Obama team may also have to play a greater diplomatic role in the continent, not least to help curb economic and political fallout, if Greece defaults on its international debts, and decides to leave the Eurozone.
Taken overall, Obama is therefore now facing a massively important period, with several major potential foreign policy achievements on the horizon such as those with Iran, Europe and AsiaPacific, which will help to define his presidential legacy. With his domestic policy stalling in Congress, his focus on other key international issues too, from Russia to Iraq and Afghanistan, may only intensify further in 2015 and 2016.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) and at the London School of Economics. He was formerly a Special Adviser in the UK Government.
gulfnews.com