US TV networks stare at hazy future
If affluent viewers were to switch to streaming, advertisers might have a rethink
If upscale audiences ditch linear for subscription on demand, advertisers may decide TV is no longer a viable way to reach them, leaving network TV to go for the Walmart demo.
If there’s one thing that stood out about ratings in 2015, it’s not the numbers themselves - once again, they were lower! - but how the networks started reacting to them. Execs have been yammering on for a few years now about how overnight ratings were irrelevant.
Most of the time, however, delayed viewing didn’t make a decisive difference in delaying death. NBC kept Parenthood and Hannibal alive because its drama cupboard was bare before Dick Wolf filled it with his Chicago trilogy; Nashville survives because Shonda Rhimes can’t produce everything.
Now, however, there’s been an awakening in the executive suites. With more and more broadcast and cable series experiencing sharp yearto-year declines even with delayed viewing, and with so many new ones not even getting audiences to show up for premiere night, programmers seem to have come to a collective realisation that they can’t keep cancelling series simply because the shows don’t live up to predetermined ratings expectations.
Empire ’s incredible spring run may have demonstrated that networks can still produce out-of-the-box hits, but network executives know that such success is now exceedingly rare. So while big misfires (The Bastard Executioner, Wicked City) can still get a swift axe, a series that demonstrates even the slightest bit of creative spark stands a chance of holding on at least a little while longer.
But this isn’t just about networks being more patient. The once-straight line between ratings performance (delayed or otherwise) and long-term viability has grown ever fuzzier, or even non-existent.
Non-linear startup parallel
In a way, this thinking mirrors the strategy of the non-linear startups like Netflix and Amazon. Streaming services are clearly spending more than they’re taking in.
Smart broadcast and cable outlets might need to make similar (if smaller) investments if they’re going to stay relevant.
If upscale audiences ditch linear for subscription on demand, advertisers may decide TV is no longer a viable way to reach them, leaving network TV (or even some cable networks) to go for the Walmart demo.