Impact of Saudi-Iran tensions on Syria peace talks
Riyadh says it will attend upcoming talks in Geneva but admits situation is ‘very fragile’
Beneath the rupture in Iranian-Saudi relations lies a deeper fault line between the United States and Saudi Arabia that may hamper US President Barack Obama’s efforts to end Syria’s civil war, current and former US officials said.
US Secretary of State John Kerry’s longshot effort to bring the nearly five-year Syria civil war to an end may be the first casualty of the latest tensions.
The Saudi ambassador to the United Nations, Abdullah Al Mouallimi, on Monday said the Saudis will attend UNsanctioned talks set to begin in Geneva January 25, but held out little optimism for their success.
Diminishing chances
US officials acknowledged the Saudi-Iran diplomatic rift diminishes chances for the peace process. “It’s going to make it a lot harder,” said an official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “It’s obviously very fragile,” said a second senior US official.
Current and former US officials said they believed Riyadh and Washington have too many shared interests, from ensuring the flow of oil, to fighting Al Qaida and Daesh, and completing huge arms contracts, to permit a fundamental breach.
US and Saudi officials are continuing to work on a $1.29-billion (Dh4.73 billion) sale of US precision munitions approved in November, according to military and industry sources. The deal, which seeks in part to replenish bombs and missiles used in the Saudi battle against Iranianbacked Al Houthi militants in Yemen, should be finalised in coming months.
A separate, $11.25-billion Saudi purchase of four Lockheed Martin Corp surface warships, approved in October, also is expected to move forward on its years-long schedule, the sources said.
“The Saudi-US defence relationship is a juggernaut,” said Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank. “It survives endless presidents and kings and it just keeps rolling and that’s what’s going to happen this time.”
Despite the Saudis’ ultimate reliance on US security guarantees, the kingdom in the last year repeatedly has signalled a willingness to act independently of the US on national security matters. Saudi Arabia gave the US scant notice last March when, with Arab allies, it launched air strikes in Yemen against Al Houthis it said are supported by Iran.
And last month, the kingdom announced the formation of a 34-nation Islamic military coalition to combat terrorism. The United States is not among the members.
Riyadh has also made little secret of its opposition to Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, a hallmark of the US president’s foreign policy.
With Obama in his last year as president, Saudi Arabia seems to be looking past Obama, towards the next US president, said one analyst with deep ties to Saudi officials.