Obama should listen to GCC leaders
The bloc’s new Asian priorities mean that it can share the US’ ‘pivot to Asia’ rather than seeing it as a threat
he United States needs to rebuild the close relationship that it enjoyed with the Gulf states for many years. Washington’s declared intention to pivot towards Asia and the nuclear deal with Iran harmed the sense of durable trust between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states and the US. It is also important that both sides recognise that a durable alliance cannot be based solely on defence and security issues, which tend to change with whatever crisis is around at the time, but must also include a wider range of shared economic and political imperatives.
US President Barack Obama met Saudi King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz yesterday and he will attend the GCC summit in Riyadh today, which gives him an excellent opportunity to take more concrete steps to build on the initiative started at last year’s Camp David summit. This latest meeting should not be dismissed as a farewell from a departing president, and Obama should be committing the US to long-term actions that his successor will take forward, whoever he or she might be.
Therefore, it is important to recognise the institutionalisation of the relationship so that the GCC member states and the US can withstand the vagaries of personalities and events. Obama’s own record in the Arab world has not been particularly successful as his actions failed to live up to the exceptional promise of his 2009 Cairo speech to the Muslim world. But his administration has taken some important steps to work with the GCC, such as starting the GCC-US Strategic Cooperation Forum in 2012, which has led to regular ministerial meetings ever since. Hilary Clinton was secretary of state when the Forum was launched and if she becomes the next US president, it is to be expected that she will continue this multilateral focus, although the US has to recognise that the GCC is weak as an institution so the relationship has to be with the six memberstates.
The chaos in the Arab world means that military and security issues will dominate this week’s meetings. Obama’s senior adviser on Middle East issues has already briefed the press that Obama will “discuss agreements on counterterrorism, bolstering ballistic missile defence systems, and defence against cyberthreats”. They will also discuss their various actions, be they joint or separate, in Yemen, Libya, as well as Iraq and Syria where the action against Daesh is proceeding with some vigour.
Grave offence
On Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition has made exceptional efforts to counter Al Houthi insurgents and push them back. It has been an important example of regional forces taking action to solve a regional problem, which goes a long way to deny Obama’s offensive “free riders” remark in his interview with The Atlantic. Obama gave grave offence to the GCC with his opinion that too much had been expected of the American military in the region with too little regional involvement. Nonetheless, as an ally, the Americans should support their friends even if their forces are not in action, by actions like helping with logistics, or easing the purchasing of necessary equipment.
On Syria, the US seems set to remain determinedly optimistic despite the obvious gloomy facts. Before Obama started his trip, the White House went so far as to say that while much more needs to be done, the trend is positive — thanks to the work that the US has done in partnership with the GCC and others. It is hard to agree with this view as endless Syrian factions continue to fight with little regard for any eventual peace. In addition to offering a necessary dose of realism, the GCC leaders also need to make clear to Obama that there is a clear difference between defeating Daesh (which remains the US preoccupation) and finding a political end to the multi-sided Syrian civil war. What is missing from the current strategy against Daesh is what to do once Daesh is militarily defeated, since more chaos will take over unless there is a civil authority ready to take over Daesh’s territory and administer it with the support of enough armed forces to ensure law and order. This will only happen with an inclusive political solution that ends the civil war. But the US and the GCC states should be looking to build a wider strategic understanding, in which, they can share priorities. For example, the ‘pivot to Asia’ is not unique to the US State Department. It should not be treated by the GCC as a perceived threat as Americans abandon the Middle East, but more as an opportunity as the GCC states move to meet Asia’s long-term energy security needs. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of Rice University has argued in an article for the Atlantic Council that Pacific Asia’s heavy reliance on imported energy from the Gulf gives the GCC states an opportunity to work with the Americans in building long-term partnerships with the allies that the Americans are working with in Asia. For example, the Asian states, the GCC and the US all share an urgent need to protect the freedom of the seas, which can be a useful starting point in developing a joint strategy in this new relationship.