Just how should Leicester line up without talisman Vardy?
Ranieri faces major tactical dilemma in absence of star striker
With Jamie Vardy facing a two-game ban after his dismissal and subsequent verbal abuse of referee Jonathan Moss in the draw with West Ham on Sunday, Leicester and Claudio Ranieri face a very new problem. Not since March of last year — long before the Italian took over at the King Power Stadium — have the club had to contend with the prospect of a league game without their talisman, but this weekend against Swansea they will have to do just that.
The last time Vardy did not start a Premier League game, Leicester were still bottom of the table. He has since been in the starting line-up for 45 matches in a row, of which his team have won 28 and lost only six.
Since Vardy signed, Leicester have won 55.2 per cent of the league games he has started, compared to 45.5 per cent when he is absent. In the top flight alone, their win rate drops from 48.3 per cent with him to just 25 per cent without him.
The challenge of playing without so crucial a player is a significant one, and the question as to how they should replace him is tricky, with a few possible options standing out.
The most obvious solution would be to start Leonardo Ulloa up front alongside Shinji Okazaki. The Argentine comes off the bench in just about every game, but he usually replaces Okazaki and partners Vardy. Neither possesses the pace to do the Vardy role, so those long, raking passes upfield that have defined and characterised this Leicester team would not have the same effect.
Okazaki is tireless and far from slow, but lining up like this would have to mean a significant change in approach, with extra work down the flanks for Marc Albrighton and Riyad Mahrez.
An extra man in midfield
A slight shift in shape could mean Andy King playing in a three-man midfield behind lone striker Okazaki. King has always done well when he is called upon — he scored in his last start, against West Bromwich Albion last month — but it would be a very different Leicester should he start. It is not in King’s nature to play high up the pitch, so it would fall to Okazaki to hold play up so that players such as Mahrez can join attacks. His presence may even mean Danny Drinkwater and N’Golo Kante are freed up to attack more. They have played 4-1-4-1 with King starting once this season — but that was in a disappointing 1-1 draw at Bournemouth in August.
There is no player in the Premier League, let alone on Leicester’s books, who can do the job Vardy does, but does it perhaps make most sense to try to replace him with the most similar player they have, thus allowing them to play something resembling the system which has served them so well.
Might that mean a first Premier League start for Demarai Gray? He is very much a winger, and has little experience but he is quick, so could play on the shoulder of the last man, and may just be able to relieve the defence of some pressure simply by carrying the ball up the pitch.
Jeffrey Schlupp has been a reliably consistent player to call upon from the bench and another option would be to put him on the left, with Albrighton moving to the right flank and Mahrez going behind the striker.
They have won both games in which they have lined up like that this season, beating Crystal Palace 1-0 and Watford 2-1. Crucially, though, Vardy was the lone striker on both occasions.