Germany’s Gabriel faces crunch vote

Economy Minister ties future to success of EU-Canada trade deal, as delegates of his SPD party vote on Monday

The political future of Germany’s vice-chancellor may hinge on the outcome of a vote this week by his Social Democrats (SPD) over whether to back a trade deal between the European Union and Canada.

SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel has championed the Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) as part of his remit as economy minister, and to demonstrate the centre-left party’s business credentials.

But critics on the SPD’s left wing are sceptical about the benefits of the deal and believe it would give multinationals greater access to European markets without creating jobs.

A failure to secure a majority of delegates at Monday’s SPD convention in favour of the accord could scupper Gabriel’s chances of standing as the party’s candidate for chancellor in national elections next year.

It might also unleash a damaging power struggle within the party, the junior partner in the coalition government led by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives.

“If he loses the vote and if he decided to step down on the back of it, then there would be chaos,” said Gero Neugebauer, analyst at Berlin’s Free University.

That would further upset the balance within the coalition at a time when Merkel is looking to the SPD to counter a growing rift between her CDU party and its conservative CSU allies in Bavaria over her refugee policy.

A majority SPD vote in favour of CETA, however, would give a much-needed shot in the arm to Gabriel, who languishes behind Merkel in approval ratings despite her popularity taking a hit from her decision a year ago to open Germany’s borders to refugees.

In a late attempt to win over doubters within his party, Gabriel travelled to Canada on Thursday and wrested guarantees for clarifications on ambiguous parts of the treaty from Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Critics want Gabriel to set out what precise improvements to the treaty text — for example the issue of transparent courts to settle disputes rather than private arbitration — are needed before the SPD can lend its support.