Mobius says gold will gain in 2017

Bullion for immediate delivery traded little changed at $1,266.30 an ounce

Gold is set to advance by as much as 15 per cent before the end of next year as the Federal Reserve goes slow on increasing interest rates and the dollar remains subdued, buoying bullion demand, according to Templeton Emerging Markets Group.

“The Fed is going to increase the rates by a little bit but not excessively and there is no guarantee that a rise in interest rates will put people off,” Executive Chairman Mark Mobius said in an interview at a Bloomberg event in Mumbai. “A lot will depend on the real rates.”

Bullion has rallied 19 per cent in 2016 as concern over the health of the global economy, loose monetary policies and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union fanned demand. After raising rates last December for the first time in almost a decade, Fed policy makers have stood pat on borrowing costs in the six meetings since. While the dollar gained to the highest since March on Monday on speculation that rates may soon climb, it remains lower this year.

“The US dollar is not that strong and may even decline,” said Mobius, who also highlighted prospects for increased central bank buying of bullion. “So if that happens, gold gets more expensive.”

Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $1,266.30 an ounce at 2:36 pm in Singapore after rising last week, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. It surged to $1,375.34 in July after the aftermath of the Brexit vote in the UK, the highest since March 2014.

While Fed funds futures show the odds of a rise in December have climbed, investors are still ploughing funds into gold-backed exchangetraded funds, with holdings at the highest in more than three years last week. The probability of a December hike is about 68 per cent, from 59 per cent at the start of the month.

Mobius’s forecast for a higher gold price in 2017 even as the Fed proceeds to raise rates is similar to the outlook from participants at last week’s London Bullion Market Association conference in Singapore. Bullion will trade at $1,347.40 in a year’s time, according to a survey of people at the gathering.