Acid test for Modi as Uttar Pradesh votes
Polling will be staggered over several weeks with results out on March 11
As his helicopter swooped down for a rally the crowds cheered and waved at the leader of India’s most populous state, where millions will vote today in a key test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.
Uttar Pradesh is home to over 200 million people — more than the entire population of Brazil — and polls there are seen as a bellwether of national politics.
Voting in the vast state, which sends the largest share of MPs to both houses of parliament in Delhi, will be staggered over several weeks with results out on March 11. With so much at stake, Modi has personally led the campaigning for his right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won big in the 2014 general election.
The vote is seen as a key test of his popularity after a controversial ban on high-value notes that was aimed at combating tax evasion by the rich, but has also hit poor rural communities in UP hard.
He faces strong competition from the state’s youthful and popular current Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, campaigning in a tie-up with the BJP’s ailing national rivals the Congress Party.
Political analyst RP Mamgain said the elections were a “litmus test” for the BJP after nearly three years in power.
“People are really looking forward to see what all they have managed to do, and their assessment will be reflected in the UP election,” said Mamgain, professor at the Giri Institute of Development Studies in state capital Lucknow.
“It is a kind of a litmus test for them, on whether they delivered on jobs, urban and rural development.” It also offers a chance for the BJP to gain more seats in the upper house, which has blocked some of its planned reforms.
Yadav denounced the cash ban at a series of rallies this week attended by well-wishers — some perched on trees to get a glimpse of the leader.
“Demonetisation didn’t help anyone,” the 43-year-old said. “This step has been a huge loss for the country whose consequences can’t be seen at the moment.
“But it will become apparent in days to come because our economy, our labour, our manufacturing have been hit badly.”
The government has conceded the drive will hit national growth, but says it will ultimately benefit the economy by bringing hidden wealth back into the system.
Pollsters are divided on who will win, with some forecasting a hung assembly. Low-caste leader Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is expected to take third place, sweeping much of the Dalit vote.