War simmers in Ukraine despite accord
TODAY, THE DEATH TOLL STANDS AT MORE THAN 10,000 AMID A LITANY OF UNFULFILLED CONDITIONS BY BOTH SIDES
Two years have passed since the signing of a deal aimed at ending the war in Ukraine but the bloody conflict has rumbled on — at the cost of another 5,000 lives.
The Minsk II accord saw Kremlin-backed rebels agree with Kiev and Moscow on a halt to the fighting and outlined a complex road map for securing peace.
It was hammered out by the presidents of Ukraine and Russia with the help of their French and German counterparts and signed on February 11 two years ago.
The deal was inked during a period of intense combat and rising fears of an open war between the two neighbours.
Kiev was accusing the Kremlin of covertly sending in thousands of troops — putting huge pressure on Moscow’s ties with the West.
What Minsk II did was rein in worries of a broader war. But it never eliminated the violence and deep mistrust blocking progress toward a political solution.
Today’s death toll stands at more than 10,000 and swathes of Ukraine’s coal-and-steelproducing east are still controlled by the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” of Lugansk and Donetsk. And damaging western sanctions against Moscow remain in place.
So where did Minsk II go wrong? Minsk II granted Kiev control over all of its border with Russia on condition that Ukraine change its constitution to grant the separatist regions near Russia “special status” and “interim local self-government” by the end of 2015.
But none of these conditions was met and the agreements have been repeatedly extended as international powers cling on to them as the only hope of ending the 33-month war.
One key factor is the refusal of the dominant nationalist and populist forces in Ukraine’s parliament to grant extra powers to the rebels for fear they would hand the regions over to Russia.
The insurgents themselves have never held OSCE-monitored elections under Ukrainian law — as stipulated in the deal — and instead pushed ahead with their own local council votes that infuriated Kiev.
And the Russian-Ukrainian border remains open wide enough for the Kremlin to send in tanks and other weapons to assist the separatists. The deal has succeeded in limiting the scope of clashes to specific hot spots. Flare-ups like this month’s battle in Avdiivka that killed dozens are increasingly rare.