South Africa has reached its Mugabe moment
Deputy President Ramaphosa, widely respected among the business leaders, criticises Zuma’s actions
Last Thursday at midnight, South African President Jacob Zuma fired respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan, his deputy Mcebisi Jonas and seven other cabinet members. In so doing, he emptied his cabinet of his critics. Gordhan was widely perceived as the final bulwark against Zuma’s intention to turn the state into a large patronage machine to benefit the president’s allies. The reshuffle also set the table for his ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to be elected when the nation must go to the polls in 2019.
South Africa has reached its Mugabe moment. Will it follow, despite an admirable constitution and vibrant civil society, the path of neighbouring Zimbabwe, where a predatory state enriches the elite while investors flee, unemployment rises and government institutions collapse? Reaction by the president’s immediate colleagues was swift, negative and not particularly effective.
Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is widely respected among South Africa’s business leaders and in the United States but has been useless to date in opposing Zuma’s actions, criticised Zuma’s actions as “totally, totally unacceptable” but said that he would not resign. The secretary-general of the ruling African National Congress, Gwede Mantashe, similarly said that he was “uncomfortable” with Zuma’s actions but gave no hint of moving from his post.
Now that Zuma has placed collaborators in all key cabinet spots, we know the country’s path if he stays in power and is followed by his ex-wife. The state-owned enterprises, especially the rails, ports and airways, will continue to be squeezed to provide patronage to the “tenderpreneurs” that form an important Zuma constituency. South Africa will undoubtedly move ahead with a deal for a large number of Russian nuclear plants that are not only inappropriate for the nation’s needs but will provide extraordinary opportunities for graft. Property rights for farmers and mines will be further diminished so that Zuma allies can participate in once-thriving South African industries that are now in decline because of a lack of business confidence. Foreign investors will look elsewhere, and South Africans will move their money out.
In this scenario, South Africa’s official unemployment rate of more than 27 per cent will continue to rise.