Illinois on track for credit downgrade

It is set to become the first US state to have its rating classified as junk

Illinois is on track to become the first US state to have its credit rating downgraded to ‘junk’ status, which would deepen its multibillion-dollar deficit and cost taxpayers more for years to come.

S&P Global Ratings has warned the agency will likely lower Illinois’ creditworthiness to below investment grade if feuding lawmakers fail to agree on a state budget for a third straight year, increasing the amount the state will have to pay to borrow money for things such as building roads or refinancing existing debt.

The outlook for a deal wasn’t good yesterday, as lawmakers meeting in Springfield for a special legislative session remained deadlocked with the July 1 start of the new fiscal year approaching.

That should alarm everyone, not just those at the Capitol, said Brian Battle, director at Performance Trust Capital Partners, a Chicago-based investment firm. “It isn’t a political show,” he said. “Everyone in Illinois has a stake in what’s happening here. One day everybody will wake up and say ‘What happened? Why are my taxes going up so much?’”

Here’s a look at what’s happening and what a junk rating could mean:

Why now?

Ratings agencies have been downgrading Illinois’ credit rating for years, though they’ve accelerated the process as the stalemate has dragged on between Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and the Democrats who control the General Assembly.

The agencies are concerned about Illinois’ massive pension debt, as well as a $15 billion (Dh55.1 billion) backlog of unpaid bills and the drop in revenue that occurred when lawmakers in 2015 allowed a temporary income-tax increase to expire.

What is a ‘junk’ rating?

Think of it as a credit score, but for a state (or city or county) instead of a person.

When Illinois wants to borrow money, it issues bonds. Investors base their decision on whether to buy Illinois bonds on what level of risk they’re willing to take, informed greatly by the rating that agencies like Moody’s assign.

A junk rating means the state is at a higher risk of repaying its debt. At that point, many mutual funds and individual investors — who make up more than half the buyers in the bond market — won’t buy. Those willing to take a chance, such as distressed debt investors, will only do so if they are getting a higher interest rate.

What will it cost?

Battle says the cost to taxpayers in additional interest the next time Illinois sells bonds, which it inevitably will need to do in the long-term, could be in the “tens of millions” of dollars or more.

The more money the state has to pay on interest, the less that’s available for things such as schools, state parks, social services and fixing roads.

“For the taxpayer, it will cost more to get a lower level of service,” Battle said.